Oscar Serra 07:00 Sunday 28 April 2024
BiDiMedia survey exclusively for il Spiffero. Outgoing governor without opponents. Very high gap despite the majority of voters declaring little confidence in him. FdI first party, Pd above 20
In the carriage towards the second term at the head of the Piemonte region. Alberto Cirio effectively runs without opponents. There are more than twenty points that separate him from Gianna Penteneroaccording to the survey BiDiMedia made exclusively for lo Draft. The governor is credited with 56%, the centre-left candidate is chasing 34.1%, significantly further behind Sarah Disabato of the 5 Star Movement at 8.8%, while there is 1.1% of voters who are perhaps waiting for the fourth candidate (Francesca Frediani at the head of the Piemonte Popolare list, he still has to collect 3,500 signatures to be able to present himself).
A gap, the one between the outgoing president and his adversaries, which today seems unbridgeable. The national wind here blows even stronger due to the political and judicial tribulations that have involved the PD and his allies. Yet Cirio was not unbeatable, as demonstrated by the fact that only 43% of voters declare that they have a lot (20%) or enough (23%) confidence in him, while 54% have little (20%) or none (34%). %). 3% do not express themselves. The same voters, however, do not consider the alternatives satisfactory and in fact Pentenero obtains only 37% of the confidence, Grillina Disabato 22%. “It could almost be said that by changing the order of the addends, the result does not change: with the notable exception of Sardinia, the other two regional elections (Abruzzo and Basilicata) assigned around 55% of the voters to the centre-right coalition. The result of the survey seems to confirm these numbers also for the largest region voting in 2024, that is Piedmont” he explains Mauro De Donatissole director of BiDiMedia.
But how much can the judicial cyclone that hit the Democratic Party influence the vote? Three out of four voters declare that they are aware of what happened and therefore of the investigations against them Salvatore Gallo for electoral corruption, embezzlement and extortion in part of the Echidna investigation into the relationship between motorway contracts and the ‘Ndrangheta. One in two thinks that this earthquake will damage the Democratic Party. Among the voters of the party of Elly Schlein who declared themselves aware of the matter, 74.6% believe that these facts will not influence their vote, but 7.5 admit that they have already chosen to change their preference, while 3.9% are thinking about it. 14% don’t know.
At the list level Brothers of Italy is the first party with 27%, followed by League (12.1%) e Forza Italia (9.9%). There Cirio list is sailing at 5.8%, while We Moderates It’s at 1. The center-left is led by the Democratic Party at 21.6%. Behind him is the list United States of Europe (5.8%), Greens and Left Alliance (4.5%), and finally the two civic ones, Monviso-Turin Tomorrow at 1.7% and the list Environmentalist and Solidarity at 1. Stuck at 8.6%. M5s. It must be said that at this stage of the electoral campaign it is still difficult to estimate the civics, especially those recently formed, whose candidates have not yet started running. Cirio is therefore credited with 0.2% more than his coalition, the same goes for Disabato, while Pentenero gets 0.5% less than the formations that support it.
Finally, a focus on the Cirio list. Where do you go fishing? Comparing the voting intentions of the European elections with those of the regional ones, it emerges that in the 5.8% of the governor’s civic formation, 1.2% is drained by Forza Italia, 1.9% comes with it Action that does not present the symbol and has already expressed its support for Cirio, 0.8% from Sovereign and Popular Democracy and 0.9% from Freedom of Cateno De Luca. Another residual 1 percent is divided equally between other parties (in particular FdI and Lega) and undecided.
Methodological notes. Subject who carried out the survey: BiDiMedia srl. Client: Lo Spiffero. Interviews conducted between 20 and 24 April. Information collection method: CAWI/From Panel. Reference population: adult population resident in the Piedmont region. Sampling method: representative sample of the reference population by gender, education, age, working condition, size of the municipality of residence, province of residence, weighted by previous grade. Numerical size of the sample: 1000 respondents out of 1729 total contacts. Overall helpful response rate: 58%. Representativeness of the sample: +/-3.2% for an estimated percentage of 50.0%, with a 95% confidence interval.
Read the full survey here
