The GDP of FVG, according to analyzes by the Confindustria Udine Research Office on Prometeia data updated in April, it is expected to increase in volume by 0.7% in 2024 (compared to the 0.5 estimated last January) and by 0.8% in 2025 (1.0% estimate three months ago). At the end of next year, regional GDP could show a change of +5.6% compared to 2019 (pre-Covid).
The solidity of the regional economy is therefore confirmed which in the post-pandemic period, in the face of a geopolitical and economic framework characterized by strong instability, recorded a growth rate above the national and European average.
At the end of 2023, the FVG economy recorded an increase of 4.1% compared to 2019. Italy’s GDP grew by 3.5% in the four-year period, Spain’s by 2.5%, that of Spain France by 1.5% and that of Germany by 0.7%. (despite the decline in population, and therefore in consumers, recorded in FVG and Italy, unlike what happened in the main European economies: a non-negligible fact, given that consumption is the most important component of GDP).
Regarding the components of the question, i household consumption (CF) should continue to expand at a rate slightly higher than that of GDP, +0.8% in 2024 and +1.1% in 2025, favored by the discreet performance of the labor market, the renewals of contracts, the slowdown of price dynamics and the easing of credit conditions and exceeding, at the end of next year, the pre-pandemic level by 2.5 percentage points.
The investments (IFL), after having grown in the four-year period 2019/2023 by 26.1%, are expected to slow down in 2024, -2.1%, affected by the high financing costs and the progressive decrease in the effects linked to the generous incentives in the construction sector. Next year there should be a slighter decline, -1.2%, which would result from the interventions of the PNRR.
The exports (EXP) of goods in volume, after last year’s collapse mainly attributable to the shipbuilding industry (characterized by strong variability over time), as well as the disappointing trend of German demand (German GDP -0.3%) and world trade (-1.9%), would resume an expansionary path, +4.3% in 2024 and +4.9% in 2025, higher than that of international trade (+2% in 2024, +2.5% in 2025) .
On the supply side, the added value ofindustry it is expected to be the same as last year (-0.1%) and to expand next year (+0.7%), thanks also to the recovery in exports. The manufacturing sector is contracting buildings (+3.6% in 2023, -6.9% in 2024, -8.8% in 2025), while the moderate growth in that of services, albeit decelerating (+1.6% in 2023, +1.2% in 2024 and 2025).
The job market remains solid. L’occupationmeasured in terms of work units, is expected to continue to increase, but the pace will slow down compared to the dynamics of recent years (+1.5% in 2023, +0.9% in 2024, +0.3% in 2025), also for the downsizing of the construction sector.
The employment rate (percentage ratio between employed people and the corresponding reference population) for the 15-64 age group is at its highest and growing further, supported by the expansion of employed people, but also due to the further contraction of active populationrising to 69.7% this year and 70.1% the next (it was 66.6% in 2019, pre-pandemic).
The unemployment rate is expected to decline further, going from 4.7% in 2023 to 4.2% in 2024 (it was 6.2% in 2019).
L’inflation consumption, equal to 5.9% on average in 2023 in FVG, would decrease significantly this year, in line with the value recorded in the first quarter, 1.3%, and then probably rise again in the two-year period 2025-26, but while still remaining below 2%. Starting from June, there should be a first cut to taxi by the ECB, which would lead to a gradual easing of monetary conditions and the cost of credit, consequently triggering a more favorable dynamic in consumer spending and investments in the second half of the year (three more cuts possible by the end of the year by quarter of a point each).
THE risks for growth are oriented downwards and would derive from the possibility that world trade remains weak for longer due to the worsening of the international tensions. In this regard, the geo-political tensions linked to the Red Sea crisis, a vital artery for international crude oil trade, together with the announcements of a reduction in crude oil production by OPEC+, have contributed, starting from the second half of December of 2023, to trigger an increasing trend in the price of Brentfrom 73 dollars a barrel in the first half of December, to 87 dollars in April 2024.
Otherwise, the recent price dynamics of gas European natural gas (TTF) remained relatively more stable (now 32 euro/MWh). However, in the comparison between April 2024 and the first days of January 2020, the average price levels still remain high for oil (+32%) and especially for gas (+222%; it was less than 10 euros/MWh in January 2020).
Tags: Friulian economy solid Confindustria Udine
