The S&P agency confirms Italy’s BBB rating with a stable outlook. The judgment arrived, with the markets closed, in the evening. And in a complicated scenario like the current one – between the new winds of war in the Middle East and the further restrictions on world trade due to the Red Sea crisis – the evaluation ends up strengthening the stability of the Italian system. In May it will be the turn of the other two agencies: Fitch and Moody’s.
The intervention / A public-private system for the defense industry
THE EFFECTS
Meanwhile, as Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti predicted 48 hours ago – “He is always very cautious” – the Monetary Fund has revised its estimates for Italian growth downwards. According to the regional outlook for Europe published yesterday by the institute, our GDP will increase by 0.7% this year, by another 0.7 in 2025, to rise by a further 0.2 in 2026. Last October, the Fund had hypothesized a +0.7% for 2024, which was confirmed, +1% for 2025 and +1.1% for 2026. Inflation estimates were also cut: +1 .7% for this year and +2% in both 2025 and 2026.
The numbers from the Washington institute, at least for the next two years, do not differ much from those already revised downwards by the government and included in the latest Def: the Ministry of Economy has in fact hypothesized a GDP growth of 1% for 2024, 1.2 for 2025, 1.1 for 2026.
Helge Berger, deputy director of the IMF’s Europe department, justifies this weak growth with the weakening of the effects of the main incentives, Superbonus and Pnrr, on the real economy. That is, “because of investment programs, with budget policy playing a role.” Instead, the collapse of GDP in 2026 (+0.2%) is due to the “Superbonus which is running out, and the Pnrr which continues to exist but not with such strength”. Berger, however, appears optimistic about the Bel Paese: “The good news is that interventions can make a difference.”
In terms of the solutions to be implemented, Alfred Kammer, director of the European department of the International Monetary Fund, is more explicit: «Italy has a very high debt and it is important that it faces a fiscal adjustment process as soon as possible. If it does so it will be rewarded by the markets.” From this perspective, Washington suggests to the government in Rome to abandon “inefficient tax relief such as the superbonus” and to strengthen the tax system, to reduce erosion and tax evasion.
No preventive failure on the Strait Bridge. «We look at the costs and benefits – concludes Kammer – And this type of principle applies to Italy and any other country».
MONETARY POLICY
More generally, the Fund asks all of Europe to make a greater productivity effort. In view of the rate cut, we can see “a soft landing for the European economies”. But growth will also pass through fiscal consolidation, with structural reforms, “to address the growing pressure on long-term spending”. Otherwise there is a risk of “weak domestic demand”, which could keep inflation higher than expected, preventing the ECB from cutting the cost of money.
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