between late frosts and snow. The expert’s predictions

Bologna, 19 April 2024 – Is it too cold now, or was it too hot before? With the drop in temperatures an unusual one also arrived in abundance snow in the Apennines Emilians And Romagna. In the Marche, on the Sibillini, people ski since they have been ski facilities reopened.

But the reverse of the medal is the alarm also raised by Coldiretti on the frosts which could involve the countryside in which the temperature change risks causing serious damage to fruit trees, primarily cherries, apricots and peaches, but also to the vegetables in the field, after a start to 2024 that was classified as the warmest ever. The cold is actually coming after the first three months of 2024 recorded a temperature 2.04 degrees higher than the historical averagethe highest ever for the period according to Coldiretti’s analysis based on Isac Cnr data, also favoring early flowering which now risks being burned by frost.

Luca Lombroso, Ampro Meteorologist and environmental communicator, so will we approach May by putting our coats back on?

“We are dealing with decidedly anomalous months: if it is true that in recent days we are around three degrees below the seasonal average, it is also true that until the beginning of the week we had been around 12 degrees above. Climate change is this and it is something extremely concrete. Since the early 2000s I have been inviting people to reflect on the topic, also suggesting that the agricultural world take note of the situation”.

So are Emilia Romagna’s crops at risk?

“It is clear that sudden climate changes are not a cure-all and it is equally true that the anomalous heat of the previous months had consequences on plant life. Having said this, late frosts have been avoided for now and the combination of overcast skies, precipitation and wind should help to mitigate the situation in the coming days too. Not everywhere, though. On the Apennine mountains the context will be more delicate”.

Is more snow expected?

“It could arrive on the hills, perhaps mixed with hail. The graupel phenomenon is now also known in our area.”

Hail, in fact. It is one of the main enemies of agriculture, and not only.

“I’ll start by saying that in the next few days it will be implorable to witness particularly intense hailstorms, the kind with hailstones that also cause damage to car bodies. But if it is true that the most ‘extreme’ phenomena are not in sight, it must be said that hail in April is not a rarity. In 2017 and 2020, just to name a couple of cases, similar phenomena occurred.”

What is the trend for the next few days?

“We are heading towards a variable weekend, with Saturday the 20th being the special focus. The cold will be felt and there may be some showers of rain, particularly in the afternoon hours. As mentioned, at the moment there does not appear to be a particularly high risk of hail in Emilia Romagna.”

And who’s thinking about the long weekend of April 25th?

“The situation will begin to improve starting from that date, also because for example Monday and Tuesday will still be unstable, with daytime temperatures that are unlikely to go above 10-12 degrees, in a reference range that is on average lower than the usual averages seasonal. In any case, it is unlikely that the heat of recent days will return before the end of the month.”

What are the main risks for agriculture in times of climate change?

“I limit myself to the meteorologist aspect, for details on the sector, it is right to involve agronomists. The fact remains that the topic is known, it has been discussed for years and the Emilia Romagna agricultural model must also take note of it. If certain types of crops suffer too much, it will probably be necessary to rethink some choices. We need to deal with strong summer heat waves, periods of drought alternating with extreme rain and, indeed, late frosts. The world is changing, it’s impossible to ignore it.”