Hollywood and conspiracy theories, is predictive programming back?

Already several months before its theatrical release, various global conspiracy theorists pointed to “Civil War” as a clear example of “predictive programming”: a controversial and long-standing concept according to which certain contents, disguised as mass entertainment products , convey subtle messages aimed at the emotional conditioning of the population by powerful media elites. In this case, foreshadowing a possible American civil war, of which the 2021 assault on Capitol Hill would have been but the prelude, with the aim of influencing the next elections. In reality, nothing new: even Nolan’s “The Dark Knight Rises” would have predicted the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook school, while the “Simpsons” had even been attributed with predicting the September 11 attacks and the spread of the Ebola virus. The truth is that the work of Alex Garland, director of the iconic “28 Days Later” and “28 Months Later”, which echoes similar atmospheres of chaos and social disintegration, is only a film which, in the provocative style of its author, offers suggestions and ideas on possible evolutions of certain key themes of our present as it was for artificial intelligence in “Ex Machina” and the contrast between genres in “Men”. Suggestions that can sometimes go well beyond the intention of their author, if we think that “The Day After”, the highly successful TV movie broadcast by ABC in 1983, even convinced Reagan to change US nuclear policy, resulting in 1987 in the US-USSR disarmament treaty.

It is not only conspiracists like David Icke who think that cinema and television can be powerful tools of persuasion, as well as of profound historical-social revisitation (as with Cimino, Coppola, Stone, Malick’s Vietnam). The history of world cinema is dotted with works, even of notable artistic value, characterized by an obvious propagandistic matrix and whose authors, such as Leni Riefenstahl and Alessandro Blasetti, were aware of directing content in support, or even celebratory, of the regime. There are those who have gone further, like the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, father of the current dictator. Obsessed with the goal of strengthening the domestic film industry, he went so far as to kidnap two South Korean stars, the actress Choi Eun-hee and her director husband, forcing them to make 17 films for the regime industry. Without going that far, it is well known that in China there is strict supervision over the production of audiovisual content which, under the control of the Central Commission on Political and Legal Affairs, is often used to disseminate messages of government interest: an example is “The Knockout ”, an enormously successful crime series set in Shanghai which celebrates the anti-corruption campaign promoted by leader Xi-Jinping, willingly aligning itself with the regime’s zeitgeist without having to give up extraordinary audience results. All in broad daylight, integrating entertainment and the communicative needs of the social state.

Is the dark role of predictive programming therefore a conspiracy fantasy, or on the contrary a real and increasingly widespread strategy?

In reality the problem is much more complex, especially if analyzed from a technological perspective. Artificial intelligence algorithms analyze large amounts of data to predict trends, preferences and behaviors, now making it possible to tailor content to the user with unprecedented precision. While this level of customization might seem harmless or even beneficial, there is an obvious dark side. AI-based predictive programming has the potential to create “echo chambers,” many of them hidden in the folds of the internet and social media, where individuals are only exposed to information that confirms their existing beliefs, leading to polarization and to division within society. Furthermore, it can exploit cognitive biases and psychological vulnerabilities to manipulate public opinion and behavior, suggesting dark alternative realities.

In a market scenario dominated by “user-generated” content created in a continuous cycle and placed online without any real filter, it is easy to imagine how the most effective, and potentially devastating, models of “predictive programming” hide in very different places from cinemas and television screens.

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