Airline ticket prices in Europe are starting to show signs of “cooling” in the summer period after double-digit price increases in 2023. But while the fares of intra-continental flights are lower than those of a year ago, internal connections in our country continue their upward trend. This is what emerges from the preliminary analysis of Courier on the figures published by the carriers on their websites on departures between June and September 2024.
Evolution
The data confirm the assessments of several airlines which in recent weeks have spoken of a “stabilisation” of fares after a 2023 which saw a boom in price increases. Last summer, according to data provided by Eurostat, rates were 20-30% higher than 2019 due to a mix between demand clearly recovering after the pandemic, companies still behind in supply, inflation, increase in cost of raw materials and supply chain problems which also led to fewer deliveries of new aircraft.
European connections
All this explains why from low cost to “traditional” carriers we are seeing prices cut to fill planes with promotions. In the “summer” four-month period analyzed, fares on flights within Europe in 2024 are down by around 3% compared to the same period last year, according to data collected by Courier. But since prices can be further reduced until September, it cannot be ruled out that the final figure will be even more negative. For example: in June tickets were down by around 3%, in July by almost 2%, a sign that airlines are gradually intervening on flights.
From Italy
But if at a European level tickets are starting to be less expensive than a year ago, in Italy the market continues its upward pursuit. Especially on “domestic” connections, i.e. within the country. The average fare published by carriers for flights between June and September this year between Italy and Europe is 7% more expensive compared to the same period in 2023, but jumps by 21% if you look only at domestic flights, with a + 34% in June and an increase of 17-19% in the following months. It should be noted that not all of the thousands of national routes recorded an increase, but the average shows a clear plus sign.
The motivations
The reason is currently unclear. There are those who, from within the carriers, explain to Courier which may be travel demand exceeding expected supply. There are also those who do not rule out the possibility that tickets may be more expensive also due to a “movement” of a portion of people from trains to planes for logistical reasons (speed of travel, greater punctuality of flights). But as in the case of European flights, even in this travel segment it is not excluded that companies could reduce costs if they notice that planes are not filling up as expected.
The trend since January
Analyzing the monthly trend of fares, we note that from January to September of this year only April – on flights within Italy – recorded a slight minus (-0.6%). But the experts consulted by Courier they explain that this is due to the fact that this year Easter fell in March, while last year in April and for this reason in 2024 tickets cost less than twelve months earlier. In January the increase was 32%, while between February and March the increase was around 25% (again over the same period as a year ago).
