The Italian deficit 2023 growsagain, due to an upward revision for i costs of the Superbonus and arrives at 7.4 percentmaking it more and more likely EU infringement procedure and casting shadows on the scenario indicated in the Def and the measures that the government intends to implement. For the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti the modification of the deficit does not in any way affect the Def, which already incorporates the change in the debt, but could lead to an EU procedure for excessive deficit against Italy. In this case, for the owner of the Italian economy, the adjustment would be “fully within the reach” of the country.
The growth of the Italian deficit
The Italian deficit 2023 from building incentives has been revised several times over the course of these months. More in detail, in the Nadef last autumn it was considered equal to 5.3 percentwhile in March it had risen to 7.2 percent. The latest revision, calculated by Istat and Eurostat, indicates this at 7.4 percent, which is the highest value in Europe. Furthermore, according to what was declared by Eurostat, the data could undergo further “limited” revisions in the coming months due to “the physiological stabilization of the data relating to the transfer of credits in the coming months and the data on deductions deduced from tax returns, which will be available only after the end of the year.” Added to this are the words of Istat, which sees in the “unknowns of the geopolitical scenario” the main “uncertainties about the evolution of the economy” in Italy. Giorgetti, for his part, reassures by saying that the updating of the programmatic framework of the Def, carried out in line with the new rules of European economic governance, “will be illustrated in the Plan prepared by the summer”.
The cost of the Superbonus weighs on the Italian deficit
To impact on growth of the Italian deficit it is, as mentioned, more the Super construction bonus. His costfor 2023 only, has risen to 77 billion euros – five times the estimated value – between exemptions and an incentive mechanism which Bankitalia has invited us to think about, to avoid making the same mistakes in the future. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, head of the Economics and Statistics department of Bank of Italy, specifically clarified that “a further temporary extension of social security contributions (tax wedge, ed.) would increase uncertainty about the future evolution of public finances”. In more detail, with the extension “the deficit would be higher than the trend under current legislation by approximately one percentage point of GDP on average per year in the three-year period 2025-27, remaining above 3 percent in all years of the ‘forecasting horizon’. This would result in fewer funds needed by the country for other investments, such as those on healthcarewith the Court of Auditors having estimated the funds currently allocated as insufficient to avoid the decay of the services offered.
The possible EU infringement procedure
The fact that Italy has implemented an overcoming, at this point no longer temporary, of the threshold of 3 percent of the deficit-GDP ratio makes starting one plausible infringement procedure by theEuropean Union. For the Parliamentary Budget Office, what makes this option “very likely” is mainly “a lack of information in three areas of significant importance for public finances and the macroeconomic framework: unchanged policies, building bonuses and the Pnrr”.
Tags: Italian deficit rises QuiFinanza
