Last July, several commanders say, flying planes was complicated in Europe. More than usual. With disturbances suddenly appearing in areas considered “quiet”. Or bad weather so violent and at high altitudes that it forces long maneuvers around it. In more than one case it was decided to divert the aircraft to another airport. Or to cancel the flight due to the absence of alternative routes available. July 2023 was the worst month for flight management: that month 44% of the delay recorded was caused by bad weather.
The report
European skies are becoming increasingly turbulent and unpredictable, according to pilots. Who point the finger above all at climate change. The documents from Eurocontrol – the European agency that monitors the skies of the continent (and beyond) – give an idea. In 2023 there were 10.2 million flights in the area (compared to 9.2 million the year before) and of these they arrived “on time” – that is, within the 15 minute tolerance beyond the scheduled times – seven out of ten.
The comparison
The delays accumulated along the route, again in the whole of 2023, reached 18.4 million minutes (almost 307 thousand hours), Eurocontrol calculates, i.e. 13.4% more than in 2022. With an average delay per flight of 1.81 minutes (compared to 1.75 minutes the previous year). But it is on the weather side that the situation worsens significantly: the delay caused by the weather has gone from 4 million minutes in 2022 (0.43 minutes per flight) to 5.4 million (5,386,579 minutes, to be precise), 0.53 per trip.
The impact on operations
To these should also be added the delays (2.4 million minutes) – again due to bad weather – caused to the planes still on the ground which were forced to wait for take-off while waiting for an improvement in conditions either at the departure airport or at the I arrive. The total 7.8 million minutes, according to Eurocontrol, represent a 95% jump compared to the twelve months of 2022. As Iata (the main international airline association) reminds us, the share of delays due to bad weather compared to the total has increased since approximately 11% in 2012 to almost 30% in 2023.
The testimonies
«The weather is visibly changing and quickly, especially in Europe», says an Airbus A330 and A350 commander, who is therefore used to flying the skies of different climatic contexts. «There are extreme events limited in space and time, they are also sudden». Let’s be clear: “There has always been bad weather – he specifies -, but this time it is worse and creates more problems for us”.
“Tropical climate”
«Since I flew in 1987, when I joined the Air Force, until recently I have never had to avoid a disturbance in Europe at altitudes above 35-36 thousand feet (10-11 thousand metres, ed.) » says another pilot, who has been commander of the Boeing 737, 777 and 787 for some time. «But recently the weather has become, I would say, “tropical”: there are very violent thunderstorms and disturbances that often go above 40-45 thousand feet”. And, he continues, “even the turbulence has become really strong and dangerous for passengers if they are not strapped in.”
Climate change
Daniele Veronelli, commander of the Airbus A320 and member of the technical department of Anpac (National Professional Civil Aviation Association), also confirms that something has changed. «In the last 4-5 years there has been difficulty in predicting the weather in relation to the area and the period», he tells the Courier. “Now we have dry winters, snowfall in March, unexpected storms in spring and summer.”
Extreme phenomena
Veronelli also underlines that even the same forecasts “are less reliable” in the face of “more extreme events”. “Climate change is perceivable”. And this also leads to «atmospheric phenomena not only “shifted” from their typical period with respect to the area», but also «shifted precisely to the area». According to the European database of extreme phenomena, reports of hail and intense rain recorded in 2023 increased by 18% compared to 2022.
The consequences on carriers
All this, IATA reminds us, has an impact on airline costs – as well as on travelers and the environment – because, among other things, if a hailstorm damages a plane (as happened to the Delta flight last summer above Lombardy) it will be necessary to intervene with repairs and with the accommodation of over 200 passengers before the replacement plane. A situation – claims the carriers’ association – which requires “greater operational flexibility, otherwise flight delays will probably become an even bigger problem”.
Tags: climate change complicates flights Europe
