After the last one halvingwith the next one scheduled for 2028, the focus is on the performance of price of Bitcoin. The question now is whether the price will repeat the growth performances that occurred in the periods following the previous halvings, of which we attach a summary table.
Halving and proceeding performance of Bitcoin
| BITCOIN HALVING EVENT | HALVING DAY | 150 DAYS LATER | 1Y LATER | 2YS LATER | 3YS LATER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | $12.35 | $142 | $917 | $376 | $371 |
| 2016 | $650.53 | $767 | $2,388 | $6,639 | $12,557 |
| 2020 | $8,731 | $10,935 | $56,764 | $38,000 | $27,618 |
| 2024 | $64,900 |
The second theme is the relationship between the growth of the price of Bitcoin and the Spot BTC ETFs. From the date of their approval (10 January 2024) and related immediate fundraising from investors, the price of Bitcoin recorded a 50% increasereaching a new ATH at 73.7394 dollars on March 14th.
There is a decline in the collection of BTC ETFs
However, since April we have witnessed a series of bad dayswith a general decline in collection volumes. The data of BitMEX Researchwhich we have shown in the image, offer a picture of the trend of the last two months. It is important to note that since March 25th there have no longer been any days with positive collections exceeding 400 million.
Trading volumes on BTC ETFs are growing
It should be emphasized, however, that there has been an increase in trading volumes linked to ETFs. However, this phenomenon denotes a constant interest in BTC as a financial instrument within traditional finance platforms. This increase in activity could affect volatility of the price of Bitcoin, considering that investments in ETFs introduce new dynamisms into the market.
Implementations on the BTC blockchain are growing
At the fundamental data level, there is a constant increase in activity on blockchain of Bitcoin, particularly evident in the context of Ordinals he was born in new Runes protocol on Bitcoin, launched in conjunction with the latest halving, of which you can read the in-depth analysis of our specialist Ionut Gaucan: Runes on Bitcoin: what they are and how they work – Why all this FOMO? COMPLETE ANALYSIS.
The historical chart scenario of Bitcoin
Currently, the Bitcoin (BTC) price is 63,000 and is experiencing a 3% contraction week. The month of April recorded a decrease of 11.70%, while the increase accumulated in 2024 is 48.90%, exceeding the performance of Ethereum which stops at a growth of 35.30%.
The graphic situation of Bitcoin on the weekly
Observing the chart on a weekly basiswe notice how Bitcoin is recording a series of four red candles consecutive. Going backwards, this sequence has not occurred since August 2023. In the history of BTC this event has already occurred fourteen times, the largest series was nine weeks negative streaks.
With the current movement, the BTC stands slowly tilting the trend while maintaining a high position relative to the main long-term supports. These supports are defined by the vector ranging from the November 2022 low at $15,487 to the recent all-time high.
Long-term supports
The first level of support it is found at $51,600while further down passes the main support in the area $44,500. A downward break in the latter could lead to a potential reversal of the ongoing primary uptrend.
The setup of the weekly indicators
At the bottom of the graph, you will find the setup system of weekly indicators. Both indicators have been trending downwards, especially the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) fell below its average, reporting a first alarm bell. The current indicator setup results in long position since January 2023 and, also in August 2023, it came close to the exit point without however activating it.
NB: I remember that this setup is a location operating methodologyit is therefore a slow strategy and not suitable for short-term trading or scalping.
The situation of Bitcoin in the short term
On the daily chartwe analyze the latest movements of Bitcoin in detail, highlighting two key elements: the bearish breakout of symmetrical triangle and arrival on the support area.
BTC’s decline after the breakdown of the triangle stopped at first support area between $60,000 and $61,500. From this area, the price reacted by triggering a climb up to resistance zone that had been indicated in the analysis of April 20th:
.. the price of BTC must exceed the area between 66,300 and 66,850 dollars.
Alex Lavarello – Analyst of Criptocurrency.it
Projection of the triangle
After reaching a high of $68,000, Bitcoin is back below the resistance area indicated. It is currently trading below the level in a context of temporary low volatility. In the current scenario, the symmetric triangle breakout still remains valid, with a bearish projection what a tip around $55.00 as the first relevant support level.
