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The latest seasonal forecasts from the Ecmwf model show a June-August quarter dominated by positive geopotential anomalies at 500 hPa between the North Sea and Scandinavia, the neutral but tendentially negative ones in the mid-Atlantic and western Russia.
The rainfall anomalies show an above average in southern Europe while we find a drier climate in Northern Europe, in particular between Northern United Kingdom and Scandinavia. Note the very dry climate expected between Indonesia and Australia after the humidity brought about by the three years of La Nina.
In temperatures there would be a prevalence of above average in line with the trend of the 2000s. It goes without saying that a seasonal average can hide important sub-seasonal details.
The Ecmwf model indicates that El Nino will develop during the June-July period. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole would also be supportive while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation would continue to remain negative through the summer. The average forecast shows an increase in members having a strong El Nino during the fall months.
Year chosen as a comparison: 1997
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