The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released after numerous studies the forecasts for the season of Hurricanes of the 2024. The outlook indicates higher than normal activity, according to experts these months will be very active with a significant number of storms. NOAA expects between 14 and 21 named storms, that is, systems with winds of at least 39 miles per hour (63 km/h). Of those, 6-11 could become hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 miles per hour (119 km/h). Additionally, it is estimated that 2-5 of these may strengthen to categories 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 111 miles per hour (179 km/h) or higher.
Different weather conditions which are affecting the Atlantic area support these disturbing predictions. Among the main factors is the climate phenomenon El Niñowhich generally inhibits hurricane activity in the Atlantic, however, the anomalous warming of surface waters of the sea, particularly in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, is counteracting the effects of El Niño, thus favoring the formation and intensification of these atmospheric events. The global warming and climate change play a significant role, higher ocean temperatures provide more energy to storms, making them potentially destructive. Rising sea levels also increase the risk of increasingly frequent storm surges and coastal flooding.
Read also: Weather, hot tip on Italy. But Sottocorona warns: “When everything changes”
Predicting an active hurricane season places an emphasis on preparing relief efforts and keeping people safe through rapid and consistent warnings. Local authorities and citizens in risk areas will have to take preventive measures to avoid the worst. Precisely for this reason NOAA recommends reviewing and updating the contingency plans, make sure homes are ready for storms and stay informed through official channels. It is essential to follow the authorities’ guidelines and prepare with emergency kits, which include water, food, medicines and other basic necessities. Additionally, it is important to have an evacuation plan and know what shelters are available in your area. During the hurricane season the agency will continue to monitor thanks to advanced technologies, such as meteorological satellites and forecast models, real-time atmospheric and ocean conditions. With a significant number of storms and hurricanes expected, it is crucial that coastal communities and authorities are ready to respond quickly to protect lives and property. Awareness and preparation can mean the difference between safety and tragedy in a potentially devastating hurricane season.
Read also: Weather, record heat and dust from the Sahara arrive: the effects and risks
In 2024, weather forecasts indicate a increase in frequency and the intensity of extreme weather phenomenaincluding tornadoes and hurricanes, also in Europe and in Italy. Although these events are traditionally more common in other parts of the world, climate change is influencing atmospheric conditions globally, leading to an increase in such phenomena even in less usual areas. Tornadoes in Europe are less frequent than in the United States, but their presence is not negligible. Countries like Germanythe Poland and Italy have already recorded significant phenomena in recent years. Italyin particular, has seen an increase in Tornadic activity in recent decades, the most affected regions are those of the north and centre, with Friuli Venezia Giulia, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto and Tuscany among the most exposed. This increase is attributed to a combination of multiple factors, including warming Mediterranean waters, which provide energy to storms, and atmospheric instability associated with disturbances coming from the Atlantic. The Italian authorities in charge recommend greater attention and preparation, with a strengthening of early warning systems and better education of the population on how to behave in the event of strong whirlwindstornadoes and formations of supercells like the one that hit the Municipality of Morteglianoin the province of Udine, on 24 July last year.
The Hurricanes real, known as tropical cyclonesare extremely rare in the Mediterranean, however, similar phenomena known as “medicinal” (Mediterranean Hurricanes), which can cause significant damage. The medicanes are fueled by the heat of the surface waters of the Mediterranean which are warming more and more. These systems can lead torrential rain, strong winds and storm surges along the coasts, with a particularly violent impact on the regions of southern Italy and the Mediterranean islands. Faced with these forecasts, it is crucial that European countries and Italy adopt new preventive measures, this includes the improvement of warning systems, public education on the risks associated with tornadoes and medicanes and the implementation of damage mitigation strategies . In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection and other competent bodies are already working to strengthen response capabilities to this type of emergency as well.
