Long-range drones, some of which are enhanced with elementary artificial intelligence systems used to navigate autonomously even in the presence of disturbing signals that obscure the flow of satellite location information. These are the new weapons used by Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia, particularly in the energy sector such as the Rosneft refinery in Ryazan hit last March 13th.
The refinery, which is located 500 kilometers from the border and is one of the largest in the country, was among other things the target of multiple attacks. Two Yelabuga factories in Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan, 1,100 kilometers from the border, where Iranian-designed Shahed drones appear to have been assembled, were also hit by a drone. If the drones actually departed from Ukraine, this is the longest-range attack ever carried out with a Ukrainian drone.
Artificial intelligence to enhance weapons
Kiev informally confirmed to CNN the use of artificial intelligence systems on long-range drones. “Accurate navigation when onboard electronic systems are disturbed is made possible by the use of artificial intelligence. Each platform has a computer with data from satellites and the ground. Flights are organized in advance with our allies – claims the Ukrainian source, contrary to what the United States tends to say – and the platform follows the flight plan and allows us to hit targets with an accuracy of meters.”
“Drones have ‘automatic vision’ which is a form of AI. Essentially a model is placed on a chip to train it to identify the geography and target the drone is navigating towards. When the drone is deployed it is capable to recognize where it is autonomously, without having to communicate with satellites”, explained Noah Sylvia, analyst at the Royal United Service Institute.
“It is completely autonomous,” he points out. “This level of autonomy has never been seen in a drone before, but we are still in the early stages of developing this technology,” added Chris Lincoln-Jones, a former British officer expert in drones and artificial intelligence, in an interview with American broadcaster.
Ukraine has been using drones since the start of the war and has committed significant resources to producing them on its territory and in research and development. At first the model was standard, both for reconnaissance and for attacks with small bombs. But the effort is bearing fruit.
The damage to the oil sector
Locally produced drones allow for greater precision in attacks, as demonstrated by raids on refineries in Russia. In fact, crude oil distillation units are particularly affected, rather than fuel storage centers, i.e. elements that require much more Western technology, therefore difficult to replace with sanctions.
Twelve percent of Russia’s refining capacity is now idle, Ukraine claims. Russia has temporarily blocked gasoline exports to avoid rising fuel prices. The raids have caused oil prices to rise, with the cost of Brent crude rising 13 percent this year. This is a violation by Kiev of the unwritten pact with its allies: financing and assistance to Kiev’s forces but the Russian energy sector is not touched, to avoid global crises, nor with sanctions, much less with attacks, underlines Helima Croft, director of commodity strategies at RBC Capital Markets.
