He had promised, pompously, a “new era” for the Türkiye on the eve of this round of administrative elections: Recep Erdogan, re-elected less than a year ago with over 50% of the votes, is now forced to suffer the sting of the local vote. A bath of humility that forces him publicly to admit that this was not the result that was expected, shuffling the cards for 2028.
Brief history of the AKP
A harsh admission, that of the defeat of Türkiye’s first party, his Akp, created and forged in his image and likeness. : Conservative, of Islamic inspiration, was born in August 2001. Only a year later it became first party in the country collecting 34.3% of the votes. Erdogan, former mayor of Istanbul, posed as a martyr of Islam: fresh from a year in prison for having recited a religious poem during a rally, he was still banned from holding public office. The reform of the Constitution of the same year caused the veto to fall on his person: thus the current Turkish president was able to enter parliament in 2003. With over 30% the AKP obtained the majority of seats in Parliament, electing in March of the same year Erdogan prime minister. In a very short period of time, the child donut seller became the face of contemporary Turkey, dismantling the cornerstones and structures that had made it a secular country, a crossroads between East and West.
Yesterday’s vote between the defeat of the AKP and the turning point of the CHP
Schizophrenia in foreign policy between love and hate for Europe, black sheep in NATO, sultan with an iron fist: in the 2023 presidential elections, Erdogan, 22 years after the birth of the AKP, is still riding high. Until yesterday. When, visibly upset by the unexpected result, he made it clear that he will not stand again in 2028 (after all, he cannot): this time it would be his AKP who would have to look for a candidate, while Kerem Imamoglu, the new mayor of Istanbul, would be the natural leader of the opposition, and a super favorite at that. That the sultan did not expect the defeat of the last few hours was also clear from the surrender with which he accepted the numbers of the CHP triumphant over the AKP: no complaints of fraudno mobilization of his loyalists at the polls.
If you look at the geographical distribution of the Turkish voteone fact immediately stands out: part of the coast remains loyal to the AKP Black Sea el’Central Anatolia. On the other hand, the confirmations of the CHP, which has always won in the stronghold of Izmirthird “capital” of the country, as well as in other large cities such as Adana And Mersin. Even in central Anatolia, where Erdogan won, the CHP took some provinces away from the AKP and the nationalist opposition Iyi party prevailed in Nevsehir. Here, moreover, the ultranationalists of the Great Union, Buyuk Birlikwhich do not even reach 2%, have been taken Sivaswhile the religious party Refah deprived the AKP of the province of Yozgat. The AKP also lost Adiyaman, Kilisi and Urfa. In the south east with a Kurdish majority wins almost everywhere Democratic party, an acronym that replaced the Hdp party. The CHP took four provinces and in Tunceli, wrested from the communist party five years ago, the Dems won.
What changes are behind the AKP’s rejection?
What is this result due to? The economic crisis has undoubtedly made its voice heard, just as the 1.32 million young people who went to vote for the first time played an important role. With 34% of the votes, AKP has lost its grip on the country, a defeat that brings good news: nothing lasts forever and Turkish democracy, although painful, still works thanks also to the 78.3% voter turnout. Yesterday’s elections should not be surprising: all parties and leaders experience a cycle of rise and decline. Yesterday represented only the last act of the AKP cyclewhose descent began many years ago and who now lives theextreme customization started by the sultan.
This is an epochal turning point that requires even the most remote provinces to intend to send a clear message to the government, even in conservative strongholds. After last year’s disheartening defeat, many expected the opposition to achieve poor results in the local elections: however, the change of leadership in the Chp from 75-year-old Kilicderoglu to 49-year-old Imamoglu appears to have revitalized the party and paved the way for incumbent mayors and other candidates to achieve decisive victories. Alongside the political usury which the AKP seems to be suffering from, it emerged that the victories in Istanbul and Ankara are a symbol of how the leadership has become more important than parties and ideologiesespecially in a country where institutions are quite weak and voters connect with leaders rather than parties.
According to commentators, although the economic crisis left Erdogan’s popularity largely unchanged in national polls last year, his party’s voters felt freer and more inclined to express their discontent on Sunday when his name was not on the ballot .
