Be careful, because here the “republican front” is cracking. Even within the government majority itself. The ministers have in fact met with the prime minister Gabriel Stop and the president Emmanuel Macron to outline the centrist strategy in view of the run-off on 7 July. The choice is not simple: the liberals must decide whether to channel their votes to the right, favoring Jordan Bardella e Marine Le Pen; or whether to join the Popular Front of Raphaël Glucksmann and Jean-Luc Melenchon. Yesterday Macron called for a “republican bloc” to contain the Lepenists and today he repeated that “it is the far right that is preparing to reach the highest offices”. And Attal also called on his supporters to ensure that “not a single vote” goes to Le Pen. But apparently the centrists’ position is not so solid.
Some ministers have in fact spoken of a “tense” meeting in the aftermath of the first round of early legislative elections, an election in which Macron’s supporters have seen the number of deputies they will manage to obtain more than halved. Macron had dissolved the Assembly after the European elections seeking political “clarity”, but it seems to have only produced a lot of confusion with the extremes – right and left – competing for the leadership of the country. The president has invited his ministers “not to fight the wrong battle”, but according to The Parisian Several leading figures of the majority, including Aurore Bergé, Bruno Le Maire, but also Catherine Vautrin and Olivia Grégoire, would have pushed to ask centrist voters not to vote for either National Gathering born he New Popular Front.
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What does it mean? It means that the “Republican bloc”effectively favoring the Le Pen candidates in many constituencies. Chaos reigns supreme and the “vagueness” of the formulas used by Attal and Macron confirms that the decision is far from being made. In fact, a “record number of triangular ballots” is expected on July 7, a condition that occurs when no candidate in the constituencies reaches an absolute majority in the first round and three (or even four) candidates go to the ballot (all those who have exceeded the 12.5% threshold). The one who gets one more vote than the others wins, which is why agreements and desistances are of fundamental importance: often, adjacent political forces withdraw their candidates to favor those of the opponents “less worse”. Especially when it comes to stopping the advance of the right. The Popular Front has already announced the withdrawal of its members who are in third place (even if no one has confirmed it yet), even if Mélenchon has launched broadsides against Macron that certainly do not favor the agreement. The Gaullists, on the other hand, and this is an absolute novelty, will leave freedom of vote and will certainly not support the radical left candidates, preferring RN.
To date only 76 deputies have been elected in the first round, including Marine Le Pen: 39 went to the RN, 32 to the NfP and only 2 to the presidential coalition of theTogether for the Republic. All the others will go to the ballot, of which 300 with the “triangular”. In 100 of these, in third place are the candidates of Ensemblewho will have to decide what to do. From this evening until July 7th the maneuvers will begin to understand who will withdraw and who will not: if macroniani and the left will find agreements in the constituencies, it will be difficult for the RN to obtain an absolute majority. Otherwise, however, Bardella can dream of “cohabitation”. To date, only 41 Macronians have confirmed the withdrawal of their candidacy, while many others do not intend to give up, including Minister Dominique Faure. The Parisian he counted at least twenty, the others are very hesitant.
Meanwhile, the Minister of the Israeli Diaspora, Amichai Chiklierhas made it known that if Marine Le Pen were to become president of the France would be “excellent for Israel” given its “firm stance” against Hamas, the International Criminal Court and anti-Semitism. Unlike Mélenchon’s left. On the other hand, there is no alarmism from the markets: according to Goldman Sachs, “the fallout from the French elections on the EU stock markets has so far been limited”.
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