The recent death of the Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi and his Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in a helicopter crash triggered a wave of international reactions, throwing Iran and the entire Middle East into a phase of profound uncertainty. This event, which occurred in the foggy forests of East Azerbaijan province, triggered a chain of consequences that could significantly change the geopolitical structure of the region.
A power vacuum
According to Iranian Constitutionupon the death of the president, the role of president ad interim is hired by the first vice president of the country, in this case Mohammad Mokhber, a former officer of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, considered close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Mokhber will have the task of leading the country until the new elections, which must be held within 50 days.
The death of Raisi, who was seen as Khamenei’s natural successor, leaves a significant power vacuum. This could facilitate the rise of Mojtaba Khameneithe son of the Supreme Leader, however exposing the regime to criticism of nepotism and undermining the government’s legitimacy in the eyes of many Iranians.
International and regional reactions
Raisi’s disappearance comes at a delicate moment for Iran, which is engaged in a series of international crises, including its controversial nuclear program and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. The death of such a prominent leader could trigger a series of changes in power dynamics both internal and external to Iran.
Israel, often suspected of involvement in such incidents, has denied any responsibility. However, speculation continues to circulate, fueling already existing regional tensions. Second Hamidreza Aziziexpert of German Institute for International and Security Affairsthe perception of Iranian vulnerability could push regional enemies to exploit the situation, increasing the risks of military escalation.
Reactions in Iran
Inside Iran, reactions have been mixed. Raisi’s death prompted both mourning and celebration. The Supreme Leader proclaimed five days of mourning, while state media broadcast images of prayers and commemorations. However, many activists and opponents of the regime expressed joy at the incident, seeing Raisi’s death as a possible opportunity for change.
Impact on the political future
Ian Bremmerfounder of the think-tank Eurasia, believes that the event, while dramatic, will not have a substantial impact on the stability of the Iranian government. The real power in Iran lies in the hands of the Supreme Leader and the Council of Guardians of the Constitution. However, Raisi’s death could accelerate power struggles within the regime, influencing future presidential elections and the succession to the supreme leader.
President Raisi’s death marks a turning point for Iran and the Middle East. As the country navigates this transition phase, the international and regional repercussions remain uncertain. Iran’s allies, such as Russia and China, have expressed condolences, while Western powers are carefully watching possible changes in Iranian policies. The stability of the region and Iran’s future international relations will largely depend on who emerges as the new leader and how the regime manages this critical moment.
