The fourth halving in the history of Bitcoin went live on April 20th, leading to the halving of the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Usually the halving creates the conditions for an increase in the price of the currency on the market, or at least this is what has happened in recent years.
What are the post-hlaving forecasts for the price of Bitcoin in this cycle?
SPOILER: there is someone who hypothesizes the 150,000 USD
All the details below.
Bitcoin price prediction after the recent halving: clear path up to 150,000 USD?
Last week, Bitcoin marked a new local low at 56,500 USD, breaking a ranging graphic structure that began at the beginning of March 2024, and then quickly recovered the points lost at the beginning of May, returning above the price of 64,000 USD.
The canonical four-yearly event of new issues of the network, known in jargon as “halving” did not immediately bring the effects hoped for by the community, also given and considering the difficult outlook for the crypto which is in the midst of important geopolitical clashes and macroeconomic tensions.
The result, unrelated to most predictions, was a 21.7% retracement since the beginning of April. This bearish movement is the heaviest of this cycle, now exceeding the September 2023 correction
In fact, the decline of the last few days has been emphasized by the increase in the Labor Cost Index in the United States and since the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it intends to continue fighting the plague of inflation without launching a quantitative easing policy which would provide for a cut in interest rates on government bonds (perhaps postponed until September)
In all of this we also witnessed the launch of the Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs, with data that initially disappointed expectations given the low volumes recorded, then contradicted by the inflow metrics on the first day of trading which signaled incoming flows (seed capital) for 292 million dollars.
Driven by these dynamics, Bitcoin has encountered difficulties in finding a price balancewhile miners prepare to face a season with revenue halved due to the halving of the protocol.
Despite all this, however, it seems that the crypto is preparing the ground for a grand restart, which would send it heading towards new all-time highs.
On the macro front, the cooling of the labor market gives hope that the FED can provide the necessary fuel to risk-on markets to face the second half of 2024.
From a point of view more oriented towards technical analysis and on-chain data, we can see how the open interest, the funding rate and the liquidation data have undergone a reset after the exaggerated speculation found in the first quarter of the yearsuggesting a possible restart from here soon.
The halving effect, which reduces the supply of new coins by 50%, will have its effects in the coming months and will potentially cause a supply shock if at the same time we have an increase in demand pressure for US and Hong Kong spot ETFs.
In such a scenario, analyst Bernstein released his prediction for the Bitcoin bull market, explicitly clarifying that the crypto will reach 150,000 USD as the top of the cycle in the next year.
On-chain data from Bitfinex: reduction in implied volatility
According to the analyzes of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, following the halving la volatility implied value of Bitcoin has decreased substantiallyfinding a new acceleration in price fluctuations only in the last few days.
In a context of graphical uncertainty weighed by complex macroeconomic issues, as traders sought to establish a price balance for Bitcoin and other assets, the volatility index fell sharply suggesting the beginning of a stall phase before the restart.
This is what was reported by Bitfinex analysts, who observed how these dynamics reflect a less worrying expectation on the part of market players.
“The Bitcoin halving not only changed the supply mechanism of Bitcoin, but also played a crucial role in recalibrating cryptocurrency market dynamics and investor expectations”
It is clear that after the April 20 halving, it acted as an uncertainty resolution event, significantly influencing the volatility and market dynamics of cryptocurrencies.
In particular, the volatility index suffered a decline of 24.3%, going from 74.54 points to 56.47 points in a few days. This change indicates expected market sentiment regarding future price fluctuations, but was not reflected by substantial price movements, suggesting a knock-on effect. stabilization.
Similarly, Ethereum (EVIV) implied volatility also decreased by 15.9 percent over the same period, from 61.94 points to 52.08 points, although its price was more influenced by a bullish trend. rise with forecasts signaling the possibility of greater growth of ETH compared to BTC.
These declines suggest a lower degree of linkage between price levels and volatility, and a greater reduction in market uncertainty.
In summary, the Bitcoin halving, in addition to reducing potential supply pressure by reducing the block premium, played a crucial role in recalibrating market dynamics and resetting investor expectations.
Now the market is healthy to be able to restart and aim to break the long-awaited 100,000 USD.
