TEL AVIV — One step away from agreement, two steps away from disaster. Hamas has not yet delivered its formal response to the Egyptian-led draft agreement. «If it is positive you will see it from the departure for Cairo of the 007s led directly by the head of the Mossad, David Barnea», explains a senior Israeli officer.
Egyptian sources “connected to the negotiations”, however, told the Qatari Al Araby that in reality “the ball is in the Israeli government’s court.” If the Palestinian delegation is in Cairo it is «to continue the negotiations, and not for the final touches to the draft. The American administration has provided commitments or guarantees” and “everything depends on Israel’s response.”
Decisive phases
The fuss hides the decisive phases of a delicate and difficult negotiation, the development of which could last days; perhaps the entire week, the limit set as an ultimatum by Israel before launching the attack on Rafah. The Hamas and CIA delegations arrived in Cairo on Friday, led directly by its leader, William Burns. The White House is playing its jokers on the possibility of closing an agreement that would be the cornerstone of the new geopolitical and security structures in the region.
The architrave is solid and satisfies both parties; but it is in the details that the castle risks collapsing. «In light of the experience – says a senior Israeli officer ad Haaretz — even if Hamas says it follows the outline, the small details and reservations it will present could derail the agreement.” The main and most important issue is that of the guarantees, requested by the militiamen, on the end of the war. On a permanent ceasefire which was not explicitly foreseen in the draft. Israel reiterates that it will never agree to “end the war as part of a hostage release agreement”, and is “determined to enter Rafah”.
There are no official statements, only indiscretions: the most optimistic, from Arab sources, say that Hamas has given up on demanding a permanent ceasefire immediately. He would be satisfied with a temporary ceasefire, discussing its transformation into a permanent one in the negotiations for the launch of the second phase of the agreement. That is, when he would still have the negotiating power of blackmail in his hands, the adult male hostages – including soldiers – whose release is not foreseen in the first phase. Is it enough to convince Israel?
Unprecedented pressures
To bring about the agreement, the pressure on both sides is unprecedented. The USA, through the mission of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has put the agreement with Saudi Arabia back on track in an anti-Iranian way: it would be a guarantee of security for Israel, but nothing will be done without the ceasefire in Gaza. The same goes for the agreement, again led by the Americans, with Hezbollah, with which clashes on the border have been going on since 7 October, threatening to explode into open conflict. It is “one step away”, but here too calm in the Strip is a precondition. Meanwhile, Turkey has cut Israel off from its import exports until it signs the ceasefire. And the pressure is also strong on Hamas: Qatar, at American request, is ready to close the Hamas political office in Doha and threatens to evict its leaders if they give back.
The real game is being played in these hours: the Israeli government is in the grip of international pressure – not least the judicial pressure of the ICC, which threatens to arrest the prime minister Netanyahu for war crimes — and a devastating internal rift. “I suggest that decision makers and political sources wait for official news, act calmly and not fall into hysteria,” says the minister Benny Gantz. But the right is on a war footing, he wants the attack on Rafah without signing agreements “with the terrorists”. In the crowded streets of Tel Aviv the torches of the hostages’ relatives block traffic. «The agreement is the only chance we have to save the hostages, and Netanyahu is once again threatening to torpedo it. He makes his people say that Israel will not accept the end of the war,” protests Einav Zangauker on behalf of the relatives’ forum. “Hamas has not abandoned its demand to end the war, and in doing so is hindering an agreement on a truce,” says a senior official. The agreement is close, but it is far away.
