The most important news on the olive oil market this last week comes from Spain, with prices skyrocketing from 5 to 10% in the space of about ten days.
The swing in olive oil prices in Spain is a symptom of strong speculation in a country traditionally accustomed to greater stability in prices, the result of agreements and strong collaboration in the supply chain. The situation of the last two years, however, has disturbed certain well-oiled mechanisms and consolidated balances, with greater conflict especially in the context of the oil industry and bottlers.
A balkanization and fragmentation of the supply chain that we know well in Italy but which is an absolute novelty for the Spanish context.
This scenario is reflected, together with often instrumental predictions about the next olive oil campaign, in strong price fluctuations, which have risen sharply in the last week.
The category that benefited least from the rebound was extra virgin olive oil, with a price of 7.6-7.65 euros/kg, up by around 20 cents in the last week. This brings us back to the levels of early April.
Both virgin olive oil and extra virgin olive oil, however, rebounded by around 10% in the space of ten days, to 6.9 euros/kg for virgin olive oilthus returning to the levels of early April, and at 6.6 euros/kg for lampante oilvalues that had not been seen for almost two months.
It must be said that extra virgin olive oil in Spain is becoming a rarity and will become increasingly so in the coming weeks and months, given the strong production volumes recorded in January, February and March in Spain, months in which it is traditionally produced more virgin and clear than extra virgin.
The extra virgin olive oil market in Spain risks soon becoming more virtual than real, with little trade which could cause sharp price swings. It must also be said that the Iberian cooperatives are generally well aware that the quality of the oil, today classified as extra virgin, is not excellent and that it is more convenient to sell quickly with the highest commercial category than in a few weeks as virgin or lampante .
This is, to all intents and purposes, unexplored territory for oil production in Spain.
In Italy, however, the market, with the exception of Salento, is stationary and stable. Attempts to speculate on extra virgin olive oil on the square of Bari and BAT were nipped in the bud and, although trade is limited, the price remains at 9.65 euro/kg according to Ismea Mercati.
At the moment, tensions in the olive oil supply chain are under the radar and the limited volumes available for the market, particularly taking into account the consumption trend, make coordinated and continuous speculation more difficult. In short, it is easier to discover the initiators of strong downward speculation, an exposure that is not appreciated by some players in the supply chain who prefer, in fact, to act through intermediaries and traders.
