According to ENTSOG Director General Piotr Kus, “the assessment also demonstrates the importance of gas storage and that greater flexibility could be ensured by storing additional volumes in Ukrainian facilities”
Yesterday ENTSOG – the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators – published the “Summer Supply Outlook 2024” and the related “Review of Summer Supply 2023”. Like the last edition, the Summer Supply Outlook report is supplemented with an overview of the winter 2024/2025.
ENTSOG’S SUMMER SUPPLY OUTLOOK ON GAS
The ENTSOG Summer Supply Outlook assesses injection levels and the possible evolution of gas demand, supply and exports from 1 April to 30 September 2024. Numerous supply scenarios have been applied, including minimization of Russian gas imports and total disruption of supply, as well as cases of high, medium and low LNG supply potential.
Furthermore, and for the first time, the model includes the potential additional seasonal flexibility provided by Ukrainian storages.
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE ENTSOG REPORT
The report shows that:
– on 1 April 2024 the level of gas storage in the European Union was in the highest range of the last 5 years, equal to 59% (or 663 TWh, 667 TWh with the UK), due to reduced consumption
– New gas infrastructure projects, mainly LNG terminals, have been commissioned in the last year, increasing energy security in the European Union. However, in specific circumstances there may be some limitations and supply bottlenecks
– greater flexibility in storage could be guaranteed by storing additional volumes in facilities in Ukraine
– most cases demonstrate the independence of the European system from Russian gas supply, especially in scenarios where some actions are taken on the demand side
PIOTR KUS (ENTSOG): GAS INFRASTRUCTURE ALLOWS EFFICIENT INJECTION IN SUMMER
“We see – commented Piotr Kus, director general of ENTSOG – that the gas infrastructure, including the new projects commissioned last year, allows for efficient injection during summer 2024 and preparation for winter thanks to cooperation strengthened. The assessment also clearly demonstrates the importance of storage, and that greater flexibility could be ensured by storing additional volumes in Ukrainian facilities.”
THE GAS SCENARIO FOR WINTER 2024/2025
The report also includes an overview of winter 2024/2025. It is highlighted that, starting from a stock level of 59% on 1 April 2024, the injection and withdrawal capacities of the storage facilities, combined with the flexibility of import supply, are sufficient to cover demand and reach this level at end of winter in all EU countries.
In the event of a total disruption of Russian supplies and low LNG availability, storage facilities would be used to capacity in some countries to meet demand, and would not be able to reach the same filling level by the end of winter, hampering the flexibility contribution usually provided by storage facilities during high demand situations.
In its outlook, ENTSOG emphasizes that “these assessments are not predictions of expected gas supply: supply is influenced by factors external to infrastructure preparation, such as political and market decisions. To complement the Supply Outlook report, ENTSOG also carried out a summer 2023 review.
THE REVIEW OF SUMMER 2023 DATA
The review shows that:
– in the European Union, total gas demand values decreased by 3% on an annual basis and by 15% compared to the five-year average
– Russian-supplied gas in the supply mix fell to 7%, down from 14% the previous summer
– on 1 October 2023 EU storage facilities reached an average of 96%
– the share of LNG increased to 37%, useful for filling storage even during the injection period
– the sum of all import flows to Europe, together with national production, decreased by around 16%
Tags: Gas ENTSOG infrastructure efficient injection summer prepares winter
