I don’t know if you’re familiar with Star Wars. As we climb up the Galibier, spaceships, clones, droids, strange animals, imperial guards, rebels, and laser swords fly by. We witness one of the most ferocious and violent team attacks in living memory, and then an individual attack that we would call the usual, if it weren’t for the fact that Pogacar usually never does anything. He climbs the Galibier, one of the mountains of legend, at an average speed of 27.1 km/h (against Vingegaard’s 27 and Evenepoel’s 26.9). However. And yet. Despite all this display of resources and forces, and despite Tadej also taking home 18 seconds of bonus time, the second and third in the standings are respectively 45 and 50 seconds from the yellow jersey, not in a galaxy far, far away. You might say: we’re only at the fourth stage. Ok, of course, let’s see the others. In the meantime, let’s try to understand if anyone between here and Nice can think of beating the Slovenian cannibal, and who, and above all how.
INCOGNITA REMCO
—
Let’s go in order. In second place (at the finish line in Valloire and also in the general classification) we find Remco Evenepoel. The Belgian who had a brilliant future in football arrived at the first Tour of his life as thin as ever: he confessed to having lost two and a half kilos from the Dauphiné to the start in Florence. He too is recovering from the catastrophic fall in the Basque Country, three months ago, when he broke his collarbone. Going down towards Valloire he revealed his true limit: the descent. On the other hand, on the descent, at the Lombardia in August of the year of the pandemic, he risked his life: it is not surprising that he has some reservations when it comes to going down tombe ouverte. But he is going fast, very fast. He does not have, cannot have, the experience of Pogacar or that of Vingegaard: but he has bet a lot on this debut. And his team is pressing him without much delicacy (this could perhaps be a problem). He can insert himself into the announced duel between Pogacar and Vingegaard, making it something new.
WHAT IS VINGEGAARD DOING?
—
In third place in the general classification is Jonas Vingegaard, who three months ago was in the hospital more dead than alive after that famous fall in the Basque Country. The winner of the last two Tours started from Florence with the handicap of a preparation that was certainly not ideal: rushed and necessarily compressed. In addition, Visma, which until last season was the team that made the world tremble, in this 2024 seems like a branch of Lourdes. But so far the Dane has surprised in a positive way. On the eve everyone was sure that Pogacar would whip him from the first kilometers to underline the difference. In the second stage the Slovenian did a first test on the second climb to San Luca and especially on the descent, to see if the shock of the fall had left any after-effects, and Vingegaard came out of the test brilliantly: he didn’t lose a meter. As soon as they arrived in France, the UAE made a big noise to filter out their opponents: Richard Carapaz’s yellow jersey got caught in the net, but Vingegaard didn’t. He crested the Galibier seven seconds behind Pogacar, then lost something on the long and, especially, very technical first section of the descent. But he didn’t fail. More than anything, the team is worried: only Matteo Jorgenson seems capable of keeping up with him and becoming a valuable ally on the climbs. Of course, Vingegaard doesn’t have an Adam Yates so ferocious as to make his twin jump, nor an Almeida so mean as to call Ayuso to order, who was trying to save his leg (and who is probably UAE’s plan B: in fact, he is fourth in the standings). However, the Tour is a race that seems tailor-made for Vingegaard, so he will fight dearly, we are quite sure of that.
LOWER ROGLIC
—
Fifth in the general classification is Primoz Roglic: the other Slovenian is already 1’14” behind his compatriot, but above all he has never seemed the best version of himself this season. Despite being the one who came out best (or least worst) from the crash in the Basque Country, Rogla is not convincing. Just look at what he did in San Luca, which has always been his climb. Yes, okay, he won the Dauphiné, but the competition was not particularly fierce. And on the climbs he is paying too much. It is not so much the gap: it is the way in which he obtained it. And his team did worse: where were Hindley and Vlasov? If we had to pick a name from those who are already at the back, we would certainly prefer to focus on the talent of Carlos Rodriguez. The Spaniard is sixth, 2” behind Roglic. Pidcock calls him the silent killer, because he is someone who is rarely seen but weighs a lot. He has Ineos Grenadiers on his side, a team accustomed to thinking big. We don’t see any other opponents for Pogacar, except perhaps Marco Pantani: there’s a reason why no one has managed to achieve the Giro-Tour double since that magical ’98, and that is that in such a compressed, frustrating and fast cycling, winning two major Tours in less than two months is almost a utopia. Then it happens like in Star Wars, when the Jedi Knight arrives and everything becomes possible.
