I wander into the first starting village and I would never want to find myself in Pogacar’s shoes. Nobody uses the direct expression “he could always get shingles or a herniated disk”, everyone uses flattering euphemisms, always with the necessary premise “obviously I don’t wish it on him”, but the substance is very clear: the Giro is long, anything can happen, look how Vingegaard finished…
And who can say otherwise. How to object to the super technicians of chance and chaos. Of course Pogacar hasn’t won the Giro yet. Of course he has to sweat it out. Of course, before singing victory he must get to Rome. But clear agreements and long friendship: if we are evaluating and weighing the imponderables, it is better to end it here immediately and save ourselves the trouble. It always applies, it applies to everyone and everything: anything can happen, you only win in the end. And period. That’s life, goodnight to the bucket and you might as well turn off the light. But is this reasoning?
The alternative is to try some instead reflection on the thread of common sense and realism, because this is the ultimate flavor of the Giro and of all sport. Discuss and get passionate, discuss and argue, but first, because everyone is capable of achieving a result and no one is ever wrong.
So. Let’s say things as they are, without mincing words: rather than wondering how Pogacar will win the 2024 Giro, we can ask ourselves how he will eventually lose it. It’s a fact: he will have to work hard. His sublime talent, his state of form, a path designed to measure like a wedding dress, the level of competition: all this forces us to draw the most logical conclusion. Pogacar already has the Giro in his pocket, he can only lose it due to distraction or carelessness, like you lose your wallet from your pocket, like you lose your house keys.
Then yes, as vultures and owls say, anything can always happen.
However, leaving these eventualities at their level of ominous omens, I would rather offer a sincere personal apology. Time ago I wrote that the Giro should build a monument to Pogacar for choosing to be here. Sensational nonsense, mine. Given the favorite park, we should make four monuments. Come on, let’s try to imagine the same Giro, with the same starting grid, but without Taddeo: scary. Here we talk about Thomas, about Bardet, but the first two tears are enough to immediately see them on the cross. He says: but not even Pogacar had good or bad weather, he let himself be beaten in the sprint. And so? So he’s not that strong after all? So he’s very beatable? So does he have limits?
Okay, let’s start from Turin and go to Oropa with this certainty: Pogacar is not the monster he seems. If the opening event is enough (140 kilometres, short bursts) to support so many hopes, I give them all away. To me it seems like good stuff only for those who I ultimately truly consider Taddeo’s strongest opponents: the gravediggers.
