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Guido Olimpio
Not just the Arabian peninsula: the moves of the actors present in the country, divided for a decade, are part of the Great Game of an area that goes from Israel to the Horn of Africa
Moves and countermoves in conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates in Yemen. On Tuesday, Riyadh conducted raids on the port of Mukalla, targeting a couple of cargo ships that had transported armored vehicles, a load sent by the Emirates in favor of the STC (Southern Transitional Council), the faction that aims for total control of the southern part of the country.
The bombing was accompanied by a statement where the Saudis defined the offensive as a threat to national security. Harsh words, with references to red lines that cannot be violated. The Emirates responded by declaring themselves surprised at the accusations and saying they were ready to avoid an escalation and finally announced the departure of the contingent that was engaged in the “anti-terrorism” mission alongside the STC. A symbolic decision followed by a more concrete announcement: government forces will support separatist forces in the conquered areas. A signal to ease tension but to be understood if it will have an impact on an explosive situation.
Present-day Yemen is divided into three parts. In the west the Houthi pro-Iranians, protagonists of many attacks against maritime traffic. The rest falls under the authority of a government blessed by Riyadh, recognized internationally and of which it is also part However, the STC has become the instrument of the Emirates. In some areas there is also a presence of Al Qaeda cells in the Arabian Peninsula, one of the historical components of jihadism. In recent weeks, Southern units have launched the assault, conquering a large part of Hadramaout – rich in crude oil – extending their hold and forcing the government to leave the field.
The latest dramatic developments are the continuation of years of friction. In the past, the Saudis and the Emirates launched an unsuccessful military campaign against the Houthisan initiative that cost many losses and ended up increasing differences. Riyadh wants to lower the heat with the Shiites as much as possible, tries to hold together the irregular pieces of the Yemeni mosaic, hopes to find a solution because it fears the chronic instability of the region. Also because it shares a long border with Yemen.
The Emiratiinstead, aim to establish an enclave in the southern part: in this way they gain other energy resources and expand their presence in the Red Sea (where they have already created bases on both shores, including those in Somalia and on the Yemeni islands), they consolidate their role as regional protagonists. Just look at the map: they are keeping an eye, in common with the Iranians, on the Strait of Hormuz; they guard Bab el Mandeb and the waterway that leads to the Mediterranean. Furthermore, as observers note, they are quite far from the fire, although with today’s weapons – kamikaze drones, missiles – the distances are relative. A precedent tells it: in 2022 Abu Dhabi was the target of a Houthi attack.
In this context, the Emirates extend their influence into the Red Sea and create a “necklace” of positions that can reach far. For the same reason they are heavily involved in the terrible civil war in Sudan, where they arm the RSF rebel militias (Rapid Support Forces) fighting with the central power. An alliance made even more solid by trade of Sudanese gold destined for Dubai. In order to feed the insurgents, a logistics pipeline has been developed with hubs in Ethiopia, Somalia, Chad and in the Libyan Cyrenaica of General Haftar, the main adversary of the Tripoli government. Another character from the axis of secessionists inspired by the Emirates. Thanks to the resources they are able to hire foreign specialists for particular missions or rely on a few thousand Colombian mercenaries.
Finally, there is a broader objective. For some, Abu Dhabi, together with Israel, intends to redraw the map wherever it is possible to do so: Tel Aviv’s recognition of Somaliland would be the first test. Coordination in opposition to alignments or individual countries, a list where Turkey, Qatar, Arabia, Iran, militant Islam, the Muslim Brotherhood but even Egypt appear as regards the Sudanese dossier. Cairo and Riyadh are with Khartoum in opposition to the RSF militias. And continuing we arrive at the Gaza crisis: Riyadh links the recognition of Israel to the birth of a Palestinian state, the Emirates appear less sensitive to the cause and favor the pragmatic relationship with Tel Aviv. However, they do not give up having “cards” by relying on figures such as Mohammed Dahlan, former head of Palestinian security, and other lesser-known figures with connections in the arena.
We are, however, in a cfluid field, with choices that can be modified depending on moments and areasin some cases in contradiction with previous steps. Compared to other systems, the Emirates have an advantage: they decide Mohammed bin Zayed and his two brothers, Mansour and Thanoonall in the al Nahyan clan. Therefore, if they wish, they can be faster than those who have to deal with centers of power, hierarchies, currents. And they don’t even have to explain too much
January 1, 2026
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