Il 2026 inherits from 2025 a war and a half: disappointed those who hoped for New Year’s peace, which in Ukraine there won’t be; and how many believed that the fragile truce in Middle East could lead to the launch of the second phase of the agreements concluded three months ago – assuming that that could be a step in the right direction -.
The meetings called at the last minute by Donald Trumpin Mar-a-lago, Florida, with the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and with the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu they are media scenography rather than diplomatic thrusts: they prove to be essentially inconclusive. It couldn’t be otherwise: the conditions for peace do not exist, neither in Ukraine nor in the Middle East; much less for a just and lasting peace.
And then there are the other conflicts: forgotten and which no one deals with, like the one in Sudan, which casts the shadow of a dramatic immanent humanitarian crisis over South Sudan; and those that the millennial unpredictability of the magnate president of the United States can explode, almost without warning, in Venezuela – oil and drugs are the possible triggers, in addition to the ‘Bolivarian Chavismo’ of President Nicolas Maduro – or in Nigeria – with the heretical input of a Christian crusade -.
Today, in the world, there is an American who says the right things – but no one listens to them, much less puts them into practice: it is Pope Leo XIVwho preaches peace and tolerance. And there is one – Trump – who does profoundly wrong things, but everyone hangs on his lips because they fear him. The Pope notices the difference when he invites “not to ridicule” those who “believe in peace”.
According to a report recently released by Center for Foreign Policy (Cfr) of New York, ongoing and potential wars are the top global security concerns in 2026. They write Paul B. Stares and the general John W. Vesseyrespectively director and expert in the area of conflict prevention: “The world is becoming increasingly violent and disorderly. 2025’s unprecedented anxiety about conflict risks remains unchanged…The United States can and should do much more to promote international peace and stability.”
There’s no point in hoping for it as long as he’s in the White House the egocentric Trumpinterested only in promoting himself and his own profit. And if and when there should be a change with his deputy J.D. Vancethe prospect would be even worse: the subversion of values and the inclination towards the centralization of power would be ideological, not extemporaneous.
The guerretherefore, they remain in the foreground on the 2026 agenda, rather than the various emergencies: democratic, in what was the West, before Trump dismembered it by dividing it between friends (his) and enemies; humanitarian, where people suffer from hunger and poverty; And climatic, accentuated by the wave of economic denialism which leads to privileging the protection of comforts and privileges rather than the protection of the Planet and the survival of generations to come.
The year will be sparse, barring surprises,electoral appointments in key states – Brazil aside -, at least until November 3, when the Americans, with the vote of Midtermwill renew the House and a third of the Senate: the vote could put an end to Trump’s excessive power, if the Democrats manage to wrest control of the House from the Republicans based on a handful of seats.
The traditional diplomatic appointments to note on the calendar are the Summit of G7 in France a Evian from 14 to 16 June – a return to Evian, after the 2003 G8 -; the Summit of G20 a Miamion a date not yet defined – Trump has already made it known that he does not intend to invite South Africa due to an alleged anti-white apartheid policy -; the Summit ofApec a Shenzhen in China on November 18 and 19; and, again, the Summit of Brics in Indiaon a date not yet set; that of SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organizationhas yet to be announced.
Brics and Sco are search engines a new world order alternative to the Western one, whose crisis is aggravated by Trump’s mistrust in multilateralism. For the magnate president, his initiatives, sometimes extemporaneous, count more than the collective diplomacy with often sterile rituals.
The EU will see alternating with presidency of the Council Cipro, who will relieve Denmark at the beginning of the year, and theIrelandfrom 1 July: they are two small countries and not particularly influential (especially Cyprus) on common choices. The first European Summit is scheduled for 19 and 20 March in Brussels, but it is possible that extraordinary events will be intertwined with ordinary ones. NATO does not plan any summits in 2026. At the UN headquarters in New York, the key week of theUN General Assembly will open on September 22nd.
However, the two truly planetary events in 2026 are sporting: the Winter Olympics in Milan Cortinafrom 6 to 22 February, ei ‘Tripartite’ Football World Cup between USA, Mexico and Canada from June 11th – kick-off at the Banorte Stadium in Mexico City – to July 19th, when the final will take place at the New York New Jersey Stadium.
Olympic truces? No chance. Indeed, there will be Olympic controversies: sport selectively bans aggressors and war criminals.
