The second round of the legislative elections in France will take place on Sunday, July 7, 2024. In many polling stations there is a “triangulation,” that is, three candidates have passed to the second round. But an alliance between the center and the left will lead in several cases to “withdrawal”: a step back by the candidate who came in third, so as not to favor the far right of Marine Le Pen.
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In a few days, on Sunday 7 July 2024, the second round of voting will take place in the legislative elections in France. After the first round, the situation is still in the balance. In fact, despite the National Rally Marine Le Pen was the first party with around 33% of the votes (followed by the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Frontwith 28%, and by the centrist majority of Macron with 21%), most polling stations will go to a run-off.
In many cases there could be the so-called “triangulation”, that is, a runoff between three candidates that would favor the right. However, in the next few hours the “withdrawal” of the center or left-wing candidates who came in third will be defined, who could decide to take a step back to avoid Le Pen’s victory. All possible alliances will be decided by today, Tuesday July 2, at 6:00 p.m. And only after the second vote will we actually know how the French Parliament will be composed for the next few years.
How do runoffs work in France and what are triangulations?
In France, for elections, the national territory is divided into 577 constituencies. Each constituency elects a deputy, the one who gets the most votes. However, unlike what happens in other similar systems, to be elected in the first round you must have obtained more than 50% of the votes. This happened in only 76 constituencies. All other 501 seats, therefore, will be assigned to the runoff.
France, 218 candidates withdraw: with the withdrawals, absolute majority further away for Le Pen and Bardella
But – this is another peculiarity – not only the two candidates who have received the most votes will go to the second round. On the contrary, anyone who has obtained a certain amount of votes can access the second round. equal to 12.5% of registered voters in that constituency (not 12.5% of valid votes, therefore, but 12.5% of those entitled to vote, including those who did not participate). Therefore, in many cases the so-called “triangulations” could occur. That is, in the runoff there could be not two, but three candidates.
The triangulation It is a situation that has historically been quite rare for French legislative elections, usually limited to a few dozen seats at most. But, also thanks to the very high turnout in the first round – around 66% -, this time there are 306 constituencies in which three candidates have reached the requirement.
Why Dropping Out Could Decide Election Outcome
This is where the mechanism of ” comes into playdesistance“. In constituencies where a centrist candidate came in third, he could decide to “desist” and withdraw from the runoff so as not to take votes away from the left-wing candidate, and vice versa. The intention would be to create two-way clashes so as not to divide the vote and not favor the right-wing candidate. President Emmanuel Macron has called for the formation of a “republican front” in this way, uniting the forces of the center and the left to stem the advance of the far right. It is no coincidence that Marine Le Pen has said that “withdrawals and voting instructions are the worst kind of contempt for voters”.
In the last few hours, almost two thirds of the 306 constituencies where there is a triangulation have seen a step back of the candidate who came in third: the desistance, therefore, is already underway. By 6:00 PM today, candidates who intend to withdraw must make it known. From tomorrow we will know how many triangulations will remain standing and how many will not.
This strategy could make the difference between a scenario in which the Rassemblement National and its allies overcome the absolute majority of seats (289) and one in which, instead, it stops lower. The delicate balance of alliances will continue in the coming days: the center-right party of the Républicains, for example, has not yet given any indications of voting for either the center or the RN, and it seems difficult that its candidates who came in third will decide to take a step back to support Macron or the left.
It remains to be seen whether the mechanism of desistance will be enough, and whether those who voted for the left or the center in the first round will be willing first of all to return to the polls, and then to vote for a candidate from a different party than their own. If the voters are not willing to accept the compromise of the “republican front”even this agreement may not be enough to limit the victory of Marine Le Pen and her prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella.
