The growth prospects confirm a substantial “slowing down” of the macro-economic situation, with the GDP rising slightly, +1.2%, while consumption drops, only +0.8%, and investments slow down, only +2% . Exports are also slowing down: growth stops below 1%
Stagnant growth is expected for the Lombardy economy in 2024, with several indicators subdued and declining. The growth prospects in fact confirm a substantial “slowing down” of the macro-economic situation, with GDP expected to rise slightly to +1.2% in 2024. These are some of the data provided by CNA Lombardia in the Third Focus on the performance of the regional economy, created by the Sintesi Study Center.
On the consumption and investment front, forecasts estimate weak growth of 0.8% in 2024. The new estimates therefore attest to the slow rise in consumption in Lombardy: the collapse of 2020 (-10.6%) has been recovered in three years and the modest growth for the current year should still be sufficient to largely overcome (+ 1.3%) the level of consumption recorded in 2019. While as regards investments, they are also slowing down so much so that in 2024 they should only increase by 2%, a trajectory influenced by various factors, including the evolution of interest rates, the implementation of the PNRR and the regulation of building bonuses.
The data regarding exports are also subdued, one of the sectors most penalized by the international situation, with growth almost at a standstill in 2023 at +0.8%, for a total of 163 thousand million euros. The positive trend of agri-food (7.1%), mechanics (+5.8%) and fashion system (4.1%) counterbalances the decline in other sectors, such as metallurgical (-7%), chemical rubber-plastic ( -4.8%) and home system (-1.4%). At provincial level, Monza Brianza (+7.4%), Sondrio (+7.2%) and Lodi (+5.4%) emerge positively, followed by Varese (+3.7%), Bergamo (+3.4 %) and Milan (+3.3%). Pavia (+0.6%) and Lecco (+0%) are essentially at a standstill. However, Mantua (-10.8%), Brescia (-7%), Cremona (-6%) and Como (-1.7%) did poorly.
Good news comes from inflation which in the first three months of 2024 recorded +1% in the region, compared to +8.8% recorded in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the price dynamics are driven by hospitality services and catering (+3.6%), while the most significant decline concerns prices for housing, water, energy (-9.3%).
On the business front, 2024 started positively, due to a slight increase in the number of active ones which as of 31 March 2024 increased by over 1600 units compared to December 2023. If the total companies are increasing between December 2023 and March 2024, the situation remains complicated for artisan businesses, marked by a drastic decline that began in 2021. In this period, in fact, 650 businesses closed in Lombardy. Compared to the end of 2019, the reduction is 4.1%. In particular, we note the decline in artisan businesses in manufacturing with almost 6 thousand businesses missing, while crafts in personal services are holding steady. The provinces of Brescia (-3.1%), Mantua (-1.5%), Pavia (-0.4%), Sondrio (-0.4%) are most affected by the decline in the March 2023-March 2024 trend. %), Varese (-0.4%). Cremona (-0.2%), Bergamo (-0.2%), Milan (+0.1%) and Como (+0%) are almost unchanged, while Lodi (+0.8%), Monza Brianza (+0.0%) are growing. +0.6%) and Lecco (+0.4%).
A positive note relating to the fourth quarter of 2023 for the Lombardy economy is related to employment, which recorded an increase in the number of over 76,000 employed people (+1.7%) compared to 2022. Specifically, the increase in employment concerns only the trade-hotels-catering (+4.7%) and other services (+3.3%), while the overall figure is mainly affected by the drop in employment in industry (-2%, equal to 23 thousand fewer employed ). Across the territories the situation is rather heterogeneous with the plus sign dominating.
Finally, in terms of access to credit, in 2023 there will be a 4.5% drop in total loans to Lombardy companies. A decline that particularly affects small-sized companies (-9.8%). With reference to interest rates, in February 2024 the average rate applied to new loans up to 1 million euros reached 5.81% (+1.42 points in one year); over one million euros the average rate stood at 5% (+1.96 points in twelve months).
