LAWN. Over 9 points ahead. They are those that a survey carried out by the Winpoll agency attributes to the centre-left mayoral candidate, Ilaria Bugetti, over her main contender, the centre-right candidate Gianni Cenni. The poll was commissioned by the Democratic Party and was carried out in the period from 10 to 14 May. This explains why among the candidates submitted to the interviewees there are also Leonardo Bisori of the Family Party and Simona Casadei of the Animal Rights Party who then did not pass the Prefecture’s screening and therefore will not be in the running.
But let’s look at the numbers. According to Winpoll, based on a sample of 1,000 completed interviews (with 2,059 refusals), Ilaria Bugetti is credited with 48.7%, therefore just a whisker away from winning the first round, while Gianni Cenni stops at 39.2%, with a gap of 9.5 points. Crumbs to others. Mario Daneri, candidate of the Third Pole, is at 4.3%; Fulvio Castellani of the Italian Communist Party is at 1.9%, Paola Battaglieri of Alternative for Common Goods is at 1.7% and Jonathan Targetti with the civic list Targettopoli is at 2%. The two excluded candidates would not have changed the substance: Simona Casadei was credited with 1.8% and Leonardo Bisori with 0.4%.
Winpoll explains that the reference population is the population of Prato, males and females aged 18 and over, segmented by sex, age, proportionally to the universe of the population. The sampling method is weighted by gender, age groups, and voting intentions for the latest political elections. Finally, the margin of error declared by the agency is 2.6%. Based on this survey, in the best case scenario in the first round Gianni Cenni could reduce the gap but without reaching Ilaria Bugetti. In the worst case, for the centre-right candidate, there would be a victory in the first round for the centre-left candidate. The percentage of those who said they didn’t know who to vote for or wouldn’t vote was quite low: 16% overall.
