Political poll: Fratelli d’Italia strengthens (28.5%). The Democratic Party also rises (21.2%). FI at 8.6%, Lega at 7.4% | Pagnoncelli

L The last few weeks have been full of events, as is the norm in recent times. In addition to the international aspects linked to ongoing conflicts which highlight distressing situations, at least some elements concerning national politics should be underlined: the approval of the «reduced» Def, or without the programmatic framework, the cases of Bari and Piedmont which saw exponents of the Democratic Party investigated for episodes of vote swapping (but then the investigations were extended to other regions and exponents of other political forces) with the consequent breakdown of the broad field, the emergence of increasingly evident discontent in the League.

The executive does not appear to be affected by these episodes: the indicators are stable, with insignificant decreases. The government stands at an index of 46 (% of positive votes on those expressing an opinion) down by one point compared to the previous survey; the Prime Minister shows the same tendencies: index equal to 47, also a decrease of one point compared to the latest figure.

However, some differences emerge in voting behavior. We remind you here that, since last month, we have been recording voting intentions for the European elections. The differences with respect to political voting are mainly due to differences in participation estimates. Today only 49% of Italians interviewed indicate a party to vote for, 51% are inclined to abstain or are uncertain. It is not a particularly high figure: in the last European elections, the abstentions or those who voted blank or nothing were in fact 48%. Compared to political elections, however, the abstention estimated by the polls rises by more than 10 points and this means that the parties that have a more mobilized electorate, more willing to participate in the vote, are rewarded. Today, compared to last month, we see three formations growing: Fratelli d’Italia which stands at 28.5% with an increase of one percentage point, the Democratic Party, which grows by 0.7% and stands at 21.2 and Action with an improvement of over one point (1.3%) estimated at 3.8. The growth of the Prime Minister’s party seems to be the effect of her visibility, particularly at an international level, and of the difficulties of the League. The Democratic Party does not seem affected by the scandals that have involved it in both Puglia and Piedmont: in this case there seems to be mainly the “mobilization” effect we mentioned before. PD voters are more pro-European (indeed among the most pro-European of all) and, indeed, to a greater extent motivated to vote. Calenda decided to run alone, taking on a significant risk, but also betting on the attractiveness of his team. The gamble seems to reward him, but still to an insufficient extent: for now he does not exceed the threshold of 4% which would allow him to have elected members of the European Parliament. The 5 Star Movement is in very slight decline, estimated at 15.9%, which does not appear to benefit from the anti-corruption (and anti-PD) controversy. In the centre-right, Forza Italia’s overtaking of the League is confirmed: although the alliance with Noi moderates of Lupi is not particularly rewarding at the moment (probably because it is still little known), given that today FI stands at 8.6% (the the sum of Forza Italia and Noi moderates separated was 9.4%), however it remains more than one point above the League, estimated at 7.4%, down by 0.6%. Salvini’s difficulties are now also evident internally, as was evident on the occasion of the fortieth anniversary of the birth of this formation. United States of Europe, the alliance between +Europe, living Italy and smaller entities, is today estimated at 4.5%, also below the sum of the two separate forces (which totaled over 6%). The Green-Left Alliance is close, but still below the threshold, today estimated at 3.7%. The other forces are far from the objective, both the Freedom aggregate of Cateno De Luca (credited with 2.5%), and the list of Michele Santoro, Pace Terra Dignità, estimated at 1.5%.

The data for the leaders is stable, with un only small decline for Giuseppe Conte, who drops by two points and stands at an index of 29. Probably for having alienated some sympathy from voters close to the Democratic Party who were critical of his challenge to the alliance.

In short, an interlocutory situation, awaiting the development of the electoral campaign and its repercussions. Of course, the data seems to indicate a slight polarization (Pd and FdI). Let’s wait for these trends to consolidate (or not) and let’s wait for the Meloni/Schlein comparison, assuming it happens.