The European elections are close. Now, less than two months to go and the political debate is heated. However, the framework of voting orientations remains stable. As has been observed for about a year, in Demos polls. The most recent one, conducted in recent days, confirms ithe decline of Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (FdI).which stop at 28% and reach the lowest level since February 2023. When they had exceeded 30%.
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An index that reflects the degree of trust in the government, which, as in recent months, is confirmed at 44%. The lowest since the first government led by Giuseppe Contein February 2020. However, the majority of citizens (interviewed by Demos) predict that the government will last a long time. Until the end of the legislature. So, in 2027.
THE TABLES
Behind the FdI, the vote estimates of the other parties remain stable. With limited variations. The Democratic Party is growing by more than half a point and rises to 20.2%. While the M5s drops to the same extent, at 16.4%. There Lega goes up a little. At 8.5%. Like Forza Italia, which, together with Noi Moderati, reaches 8%. The other parties are close to the 4% threshold, necessary to access the European Parliament. An inspiring perspective Italia Viva and +Europa to ally themselves, “forming a new formation”. United States of Europe. The (however limited) strength of the FdI, therefore, reflects the fragmentation of the party system. But, above all, of the opposition. At the same time, it explains the long-lived prediction attributed to this government.
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The leaders’ approval rating reproduces, to a large extent, the consensus towards the parties. Confirming the fact that parties are now “personalized” and, therefore, summarized by the figure of the leader. Compared to the “measures” that emerged in the previous survey, carried out in February, however, some interesting variations are observed. In front of everyone, in fact, is still Giorgia Meloni, who attracts the trust of 44% of citizens.
But, at a short distance, he chases Antonio Tajani, Silvio Berlusconi’s successor, who rises by 5 points, to 42%. And it surpasses Emma Bonino. While Giuseppe Conte “falls” (literally) to 34%. Penalized, to a large extent, by tensions and second thoughts on the “wide field”. It has now remained “an imaginary image”. While the “tight field” around Conte is real.
The popularity of other leaders changes little. Elly Schlein it is confirmed at just over 30%. Matteo Salvini it is confirmed at 27%. Carlo Calenda to 25%. Further back, Nicola Fratoianni and Angelo Bonelli, just above 20%. Ultimately, it remains Matteo Renziwhich fell to 19%.
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The parties, summarized by the figure of the leader, therefore tend to become “virtual subjects”. Because beyond the leader it is difficult to glimpse anything else. It is now a question of “leaders without parties”. It is an issue that is more evident and critical in the face of the next European elections. Because it weakens the attention and mobilization of citizens. And it risks further reduce electoral participation, which, in the previous elections in 2019, had slipped just under 55%. Furthermore, in the Demos survey, half of the citizens interviewed considered abstention to be a (non)legitimate vote. Sometimes necessary and appropriate. According to 11% «it is the only possible choice, because voting is no longer useful anymore».
However, the other half (50%) of citizens believe that “voting is a duty”. A feeling that grows with age. These are interesting opinions, as the European elections are, however, considered “less relevant”, Compared to others. Although on this occasion we will vote in over 3700 municipalities, of which 29 are provincial capitals. A factor that will certainly contribute to increasing participation.
It is interesting to observe how, in the Demos survey, the attitude towards “not voting” among young people is less critical. In fact, only a third of those aged between 18 and 29 believe that «abstention is always negative». Half, compared to elderly voters, who in the sample taken into consideration are over 65 years old.
Overall, as Roberto Biorcio observes, the refusal to cast one’s vote has spread in parallel with the growth of disaffection towards the political class. Towards politicians and parties.
In other words, “not voting is a vote”. A way of denouncing the drift of politics. And to “vote” for anti-politics. Which, by now, it has become the first “anti-party” in our country.
Tags: Confidence government declining Brothers Italy lowest Forza Italia undermines League rise
