According to a forecast by experts in the Lancet specialist journal, cases of prostate cancer are destined to increase in the coming years and could even increase by 2040. Likewise, mortality rates could increase, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
In the 2040 the annual cases of prostate cancer they might double up. According to the forecasts of Lancet Commission on Prostate Cancerthe prestigious English medical journal, will be counted all over the world in 2040 2.9 million prostate cancer cases per year. About double those of 2020, when there were 1.4 million cases.
The report, published in the Lancet, also warns aboutpotential increase in deaths: according to the study’s forecast, in addition to cases of the disease, deaths due to it will also increase. The percentage of the increase is around 85%, especially in Low- and middle-income countries: Over the next 20 years, deaths could rise from 375,000 in 2020 to nearly 700,000 by 2040.
The reasons for the increase in cases
When we talk about the possible evolution of a certain disease, often theincrease in cases it is linked to environmental factors or people’s lifestyle. However, in this specific case the prediction of the increase in prostate cancer cases is not due to other factors.
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As the authors explain, cases of prostate cancer are destined to increase also for the progressive aging of the population: being over 50 years old, as well as having a family history with other cases, it represents one of the major risk factors. Being two “inevitable” causes, changing lifestyle or carrying out public health interventions – the experts explain – could not, however, prevent the expected increase in cases. Rather, it is necessary to intervene on early diagnosis.
How to change the diagnosis to improve prevention
The prostate cancer it is already one of the most common tumors in the male population. Represents 15% of all male cancers and it is the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide, after lung cancer. Although prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in 112 countries around the world, in most of those high income From the mid-1990s to today, deaths from prostate cancer have decreased significantly, also thanks to screening techniques applied to the male population. These are based on a particular test: the PSA measurementor the prostate specific antigen.
The PSA assay is a simple blood testhowever, not all countries have a recommended screening program – there isn’t even one in Italy – and even where it is, it may be necessary re-evaluate the execution methods.
The limitations of current screening programs
The Lancet Commission examined the case of the United Kingdom, where the screening through PSA measurement only in the case of men aged 50 or over do they decide to undergo it after talking to their doctor. However, this approach – explains the Commission – could lead to a overtesting in low-risk older menwithout however improving early diagnosis in men younger men at higher risk.
These include, for example, subjects with cases of prostate cancer in the family, those of African origin and others with particular conditions, such as the presence of a specific genetic mutation (BRCA2). In these most at-risk categories, regardless of age, the Commission’s recommendation is to enhance and review screening techniquesfor example by combining the PSA measurement with a program of targeted checks through magnetic resonance imaging.
