As New Year’s Eve approaches, “Affari d’Oro” also makes some assessments: what year was 2025 for those who invested in the markets? Well, if you think that 2025 was the year of artificial intelligence, or cryptocurrencies, you are largely wrong. This was in fact the year of returning to fundamentals. Real assets, raw materials, old economies. Silver and gold dominated, Europe surprised and the dollar disappointed. Investors who understood these trends early multiplied their capital. The final ranking of the best asset classes of 2025 is clear: one thousand euros invested on 2 January in securities anchored to silver were worth 2,430 euros on 23 December; in gold a little less but still a lot: 1,714 euros.
The Milan Stock Exchange wasn’t bad either: the FTSE MIB index beat the main European stock markets with +30% (1,300 euros), against +22% of the German DAX, +21% of the English and (UK) FTSE 100 and +10.7% of the French CAC. The performance of the US stock markets was also good: +22% for the Nasdaq and approximately +18% for Wall Street. But if the euro/dollar exchange rate is applied to these performances, our thousand euros remain more or less the same, or a little more. The dollar, in fact, has significantly devalued during 2025. Compared to the euro, we are in the order of 15% (it was just above parity, now it is worth 1.17/18). For this reason, the investment in fixed income (US government bonds) for a European investor who did not hedge the exchange rate risk was even negative: the thousand euros went back to the 925 area despite the yields on ten-year Treasury bonds being consistently 1-2% higher than BTPs.
The latter, on the contrary, have given excellent satisfaction, with a “total return” (capital + coupons) of around 3.5%, higher than both Germany and France: the BTP has benefited, in addition to the drop in ECB rates, also from the trend in the spread. A completely different story for losing asset classes, such as cryptocurrencies (-5% is the balance of Bitcoin, which however is -30% from its highs) in a year that everyone expected to be better due to favorable legislation in the USA. But also TTF gas and, as mentioned, the dollar.
Three possible explanations. The first is the so-called “debasement trade”, i.e. the escape from American (but also Japanese) government bonds abandoned massively due to record levels of global public debt. A flight that pushed capital towards gold and silver. The second is the policy of the central banks of countries such as China or India which have accelerated purchases of physical gold to reduce dependence on the dollar, selling Treasury bonds and buying gold bullion. Third cause, the drop in short-term rates, first in Europe, then in the USA, which contributed to the same trends mentioned above.
How will 2026 go? This is another story yet to be written.
What is certain, however – faced with a geopolitical situation in great fibrillation and unlike the more or less recent past – Italy presents one of the best market conditions ever, thanks to the political stability which also guarantees financial stability.
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