A three-phase agreement in which, according to media reports, the United States would guarantee (but Israel denies) the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in 124 days. Here it is, the point on which for the first time since the beginning of the conflict Israel and Hamas are close, very close indeed.
In the first phase, which could last 40 days, 33 hostages (out of 132) would be released and the army would retreat. The displaced persons could return, without limitations, to their areas of origin. In the second phasewhich would extend up to 42 days, the remaining living hostages would be released (it is not clear how many there are) and the parties would agree on the conditions for a definitive ceasefire. In the last phase, which could last up to 42 days, the bodies of the dead hostages would be returned (there would be dozens). The agreement also includes the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners
Mediations and the role of the USA
With CIA chief William Burns arriving in Cairo to mediate in person, Hamas and Israel find themselves faced with an undeclared ultimatum. Failure would be a boomerang for both. With Hamas which, under US pressure, sees Qatar threatening Hanyeh and the other leaders who have fled to Doha with eviction, and Tel Aviv which could definitively lose unconditional American support, when US universities are in turmoil and Joe Biden cannot close the his mandate under the banner of repression.
In the midst of “Shabbat” the Israeli delegation did not move until sunset. Tel Aviv officials still remain in Cairo, but the agreement must be signed with a pact at the highest level: the Cairo and Qatari mediators with the heads of the Israeli and United States secret services, face to face with the leaders of Hamas . Israel has given preliminary assent to terms which, according to one source, include the return of between 20 and 33 hostages in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and a suspension of fighting for a few weeks. Around 100 hostages remain in Gaza, some of whom, according to Israel, died in captivity.
But according to Israeli media «there remain some obstacles put forward by the Palestinians», although according to Axios «there are first indications that Hamas will eventually agree to carry out the first phase of the agreement – the humanitarian release of the hostages – without an official commitment to Israel to end the war.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence that Israel enter Rafah is another “key element of the negotiation”. Hamas sources reiterated that any achievement of a ceasefire “means that there will be no more attacks against Gaza and Rafah.” The request was rejected by Tel Aviv, but Taher Al-Nono, a Hamas official and advisor to the head of the political leader Ismail Haniyeh, in the afternoon had confirmed the meetings with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, assuring that the organization is addressing their proposals «with full seriousness and responsibility. So there is room for maneuver. Although «any agreement is reached must include our demands: a complete and permanent end to the aggression, the total and complete withdrawal of the occupation from the Gaza Strip, the return of displaced people to their homes without restrictions and a real exchange agreement of prisoners, as well as reconstruction and the end of the blockade.” Words that are interpreted with the intention of raising the price and trying to obtain a reciprocation: temporary truce granted by Israel, in exchange for aid and the release of Marwan Barghouti.
It is the name that has been circulating on the negotiating table for some time. Israel has always said no, and the Palestinian Authority has remained cold to this hypothesis, preferring to talk about the release of “all Palestinian political prisoners and not a single one”. But the proposal coming from Hamas has gained traction in recent weeks, and a counter-proposal has filtered in from Israel: to release Barghouti on the condition that he goes to Gaza and not to the West Bank. A way to put Yahya Sinwar, who leads Hamas’s military operations, in difficulty. Barghouti himself condemned the October 7 attack several times from prison. “Civilians must be kept out of the picture,” said the former leader of Fatah, the dominant political force in the West Bank. And while demonstrations against Netanyahu resumed throughout Israel in the evening, in the West Bank another 5 Palestinians were killed during an Israeli raid in Tulkarem.
