Chinese GP, qualifying telemetry: Ferrari and two tenths from Red Bull – Technical Analysis

Friday hard to read

Those hoping for chaos conducive to the show will certainly be satisfied after Friday Chinese Grand Prix. The sprint qualifying takes place on the Shanghai track after just one free practice session which left more unknowns than certainties and at the end of SQ2 the rain arrives to mess things up even more. However, some interesting readings can be drawn from Chinese Friday, starting from the result in the rain.

Norris deserved pole, McLaren alone able to turn on the tires in the wet

The pole for Norris’ Sprint on the McLaren comes after an SQ3 in which only the problem of track limits continued to stem what on the track was appearing at every lap as a domination of the Englishman and the Woking team. The pole was rightly reconfirmed to the Englishman, with an FIA mess not so much in readmitting his lap, but in having initially canceled it, given the clarity of the race director’s notes on the matter, the only regulatory reference on the subject. As regards performance in the rain, the difficulty for everyone was clearly that of bringing the intermediate tires up to temperature, those who couldn’t do this ended up sliding all over the track, as if on a sheet of ice, as we have seen more or less done. to everyone, including RedBull and Ferrari, whose performance is not particularly assessable in such a particular condition. At the other end the number 4 McLaren continued to find the correct window lap after lap, eventually closing with record advantages over his pursuers: 1.2 seconds over Hamilton, almost 2 over Alonso, a pair of pursuers for over 80 years and 9 world titles, who certainly did not lack experience. But the young Briton showed off a feat of talent that should not be underestimated, aided by a car which, thanks to the aerodynamic load and mechanics that bring a large amount of energy to the tires in these conditions, was able to find the right window of tire temperature almost a lap earlier than the competition.

Oscar Piastri finished 3 seconds behind Norris, a huge gap, but which was spoiled by a problem/error in the last sector, when, as can be seen from the data, the Australian driver’s car went into neutral between turn 15 and turn 16, causing him to lose over 1 and a half seconds, after Piastri had instead managed to make an extraordinarily deep braking at turn 14 which was taking him close to the front row. McLaren is therefore undoubtedly the car to beat in wet conditions, with the impression, even from free practice, of a good overall balance of the car, probably third overall strength, but still very close. Hamilton also performed well, putting in a great performance based on experience on the tyres, as did Alonso. If Aston Martin had nevertheless appeared quite ready in free practice and in SQ1 and SQ2, Hamilton’s seemed like a pure exploitwith a W15 that until SQ3 definitely seemed to be in great pain, showing a widespread lack of grip, and a need for continuous corrections by the drivers.

In the dry Leclerc 1 tenth behind Verstappen

However, if we look at what happened before the rain started we see that SQ2 ended with Verstappen in the lead and Leclerc second just one tenth behind. Even if we were running on medium tyres, the data is of great interest and it is worth analyzing the performance comparison between the two in more detail.

Looking at the general parameters we note that the indicators relating to the aerodynamic load are however very similar, a sign that there is not a marked difference in downforce at the moment between the two cars. Verstappen spends significantly more time at full throttle than Leclerc (52.6% versus 48.7%) and almost all of this difference is in the approach to turn 7-8 in which the Dutchman manages to stay at full throttle while the Monegasque is forced to partially throttle slightly . We have indicated in the graph and on the track map with purple arrows the points where Leclerc loses the most to Verstappen because they all seem to have a common matrix. Once again at the start of the lap the Red Bull number 1 gains but the braking phases continue to be a strong point for Ferrari, even in a complicated corner like the first in Shanghai. Looking only at the sector time, the doubt could have been that in a section where the front end is so important it was precisely the going through the first corners that caused Leclerc to be more than 1 and a half tenths behind Verstappen in the first sector, but looking at with accuracy of the data you can see that the problem does not seem to reside either in the entry or in the corner, but in the exit, especially when you have to get back on the gas while maintaining a certain steering angle. The RB20 once again excels in traction, while the SF24 still seems not entirely set up on the rear, with a tendency to give little confidence at the moment of maximum load on both the rear and the sides. It doesn’t seem like an aerodynamic balance problem as much as the mechanics, which also involves the differential settings, which are fundamental when exiting corners for example, still don’t have the perfection necessary to challenge RedBull even in reaccelerations, after having made giant strides precisely in entry and travel. Turn 8 follows a bit the same profile, being a very long curve with a lot of lateral support, while turns 10 and 13 confirm the impression of this difficulty for the rear axle to “push” the car forward when there is also a high lateral load value. Leclerc appears before the last corner with a gap of 2 and a half tenths, which appears to be true, but which however is reduced to just one tenth due to a Verstappen’s mistake on the last corner. Overall therefore a Ferrari that on a complicated and selective track still manages to stay close to the Red Bull on the flying lap, with the ability to put at least one of the Milton Keynes cars behind and with, above all, some fairly limited shortcomings to work on. Third force on the track in the dry, as previously mentioned, McLaren clearly appeared, not far from Ferrari, with a scale of values ​​that is confirmed from race to race, with the exception of Kick Sauber which places both Zhou and Bottas in Q3 big surprise.

Sprint will finally say something about the pace

We will therefore see a Sprint that promises to be decidedly interesting and fun: the two Red Bulls and the two Ferraris start behind three potentially slower cars, with the exception of Norris who could have the opportunity to finally score a victory, albeit in a short race, if Alonso and Hamilton managed to give the four comebacks behind them a hard time. The curiosity is to see how the cars behave on the tires in a long run under equal conditions, albeit with a low fuel load. Obviously an important factor will be to stay out of trouble, as there is very little time between the sprint and qualifying for the race and an accident in the short race could compromise the entire weekend.