It’s 6:00 PM and the election campaign is heating up. The deadline set for the presentation of the electoral lists for Sunday’s runoff also means the official announcement of the number of candidates who have decided to withdraw, almost all of them in an anti-Rassemblement National function: 218beyond all expectations.
Despite the chaos of the last few hours and the fierce controversies that have overwhelmed the Macron camp, In France, the Republican Front has been re-establishedthat political reflex that for decades has united the forces opposed to the far right to prevent first Jean-Marie, then Marine Le Pen, from coming to power.
According to most analysts, starting tonight the Rn’s road to an absolute majority has become very uphill. The triangular ballots, 306 at the end of the first round last Sunday, have been reduced to a third, and it was mainly there that Le Pen’s party had to fish for seats to add to the 39 already won. Then there are the more traditional run-offs, the duels, of which there are 190. Of the 218 désistements, 130 came from the left of the New Popular Front and 82 from the Macronians and the majority united under the label Ensemble.
The hypotheses on the future of France are now reduced to four most likely ones.
The first is that in any case and despite everything Rassemblement National wins absolute majoritywith the automatic appointment of Jordan Bardella as prime minister.
The second, more probable, is the relative majority for the Rnwhich would imply the use of a reserve of external votes, at least for the government’s confidence vote and for the approval of the budget law. They would be deputies of the Républicains that Marine Le Pen today defined as “compatible” with a Bardella government. “270 seats are enough for us to govern”, said the far-right leader, imagining finding the other 20 votes in Parliament, but there is no confirmation of this eventuality that she has floated.
The third hypothesis that has been going around all day is the one supported by the outgoing Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal: “a plural majority“, that is, a sort of coalition to govern that includes a very broad range, from the Républicains to the communists. With the exclusion of La France Insoumise, incompatible with the Macronists and the Républicains, but for which a sort of neutrality is essential.
Finally, the last hypothesis, which also seems the least probable, is that – in the absence of a political majority – we are moving towards a government led by a personality considered somehow super partesWe are talking about three former prime ministers such as Lionel Jospin, Jean-Pierre Raffarin and Bernard Cazeneuve.
The day was chaotic and the controversies continued as the time for the deadline to submit the lists approached. The situation was particularly tense within Macron’s camp, where the testimonies from the government meeting called yesterday at the Elysée were dramatic. With Macron and Attal are increasingly pushing for elected ministers and undersecretaries to desist in the constituencies where they had come in third place behind the Rn. And at least five who refused.
Among those who withdrew, even in the last few hours, following the indications of the Elysée, there were still five ministers. Or rather, five female ministers, given that it was all women who gave life to the Republican Front within ‘Macronlandia’. In the morning, on the microphones of France Inter, Le Pen had opened hostilities by accusing Macron of an “administrative coup” for a series of appointments (top police and gendarmerie officials) that he would like to announce after that of the European Commissioner, Thierry Breton, to precede the arrival of the far right in government.
The Elysée, in the evening, invited the opposing leader to “keep her cool”. Immediately after the announcement of the 218 anti-RN withdrawals, Jordan Bardella gave a bold interview to Le Figaro: “The real Republican Front is us”, what has been formed is “the alliance of dishonor”. Then, flaunting his confidence, he added: “We will have an absolute majority. Politics goes in waves, the one that is bringing us is powerful”.
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