migrants, inflation and wars, the crises that drive the anti-EU

The vote in the Länder of the former East Germany was only the appetizer; Austria is serving the main course for the recovery of the continental ultra-right which is riding the discontent of the electorate with the success of the FPÖ, which started with a hard anti-migrant line and never hidden pro-Kremlin sympathies. National-populist formations skeptical about support for Ukraine and which accuse Brussels of being too soft in the fight against irregular immigration and the high cost of living are already in the government of Hungary and Slovakia: with the affirmation of the FPÖ the Central European fortress of the anti-EU forces, ready to give Ursula von der Leyen’s mandate as President of the Commission a hard time. Although the door always remains open to dialogue, especially when negotiations for the formation of a coalition are in high seas, the scenario of an Austrian chancellor expressing the anti-system far right for the first time does not make EU leaders sleep peacefully , moreover at the moment of the delicate transition from one executive to another.

THE EQUILIBRIUM

The one toasting in Brussels is the sovereignist international of which the FPÖ is part, which had already emerged in great shape from the European elections, and which almost a year ago had welcomed the advance of Geert Wilders’ nationalists in the Dutch polls , today in government in The Hague together with the traditional centre-right parties. There is, for example, Matteo Salvini’s League, which gave the Austrians an appointment in Pontida on Sunday. “The unprecedented result confirms the great desire for change towards the establishment forces that also misgovern in Brussels”, comments the head of the Northern League delegation to the EU Parliament Paolo Borchia, who shares the same group with the six elected members of Herbert Kickl’s FPÖ, that of the Patriots led by the Franco-Hungarian duo Marine Le Pen-Viktor Orbán to become the third largest formation in the hemicycle. The leader of the Rassemblement national, Marine Le Pen, also congratulated: «We are happy with our ally’s victory. This movement supports the defense of national interests and the safeguarding of identities and sovereignty.” But if to stem the organized presence of the radical right in the European Parliament, the pro-EU groups have once again erected a cordon that leaves the Patriots on the margins of political negotiations, in the European Council, where the leaders of all 27 EU states sit . Especially on dossiers, such as foreign policy, where unanimity is needed.

THE PUTINIAN FRONT

Seen from Brussels, the closeness to Putin (with whose United Russia formation the FPÖ had signed a cooperation agreement) risks giving a hand to “Mr. no” Orbán and weakening the EU’s ability to impose new sanctions. Moreover, at a time when Austria continues to import Russian gas for almost all of its needs, and – having not undertaken the diversification of supplies – risks finding its reserves (almost) dry if Kiev blocks the transit of methane

Russian through its territory. The change in the balance of power in Vienna will not have any impact on the composition of von der Leyen’s new team. The Austrian name has already been indicated by the outgoing government: it is Magnus Brunner, current Finance Minister and exponent of the ÖVP, who has earned a solid reputation in the field as a rigorist hawk on public finances. Von der Leyen entrusted the migration policies to him: a choice that sends precise signals, given that in recent years Vienna has adopted a hard line when it comes to borders, from the stop to the full inclusion of Bulgaria and Romania in the Schengen area of ​​free movement to reinstatement of border controls which earned her a conviction from the Court of Justice. Brunner could take on the role of the guarantor of a government shifted to the right at home. The beginning of the 2000s is a long time ago when the first participation of the FPÖ as a minority partner in an Austrian government led to the diplomatic boycott of the other EU capitals. An unprecedented solution, then, but destined to set a precedent. The direct heir is the possibility of suspending the voting rights of a member state (unanimity is required), which today is brandished several times against Orbán’s Hungary. But it is the leader of Budapest who, in the meantime, is securing new allies in his crusade against Brussels.