After the publication yesterday of the quarterly data from Unioncamere Lombardia, here is the focus of the Chamber of Commerce of Cremona on the performance of the Cremonese economy in the same period.
The industrial companies of Varese (+3.2%), Sondrio (+3.1%), Lodi (+2.6%) and Milan (+2.1%) continue to grow. The remaining provinces are positioned in the negative area led by Cremona which recorded the most limited contraction (-0.2%).
“The survey for the first quarter of 2024 reveals a situation in the provincial manufacturing sector that is differentiated for the industrial and craft sectors. The industry shows an economic adjustment, after the positive exploit at the end of 2023, with a contraction in production (-1.7%). This is, in all probability, the rebound effect after the 3.2% recorded in the last quarter of 2023″, he comments Gian Domenico Auricchio, Extraordinary Commissioner of the Chamber of Commerce.
“Price growth also slows significantly, both for raw materials (+0.2%) and for finished products (+0.4%). The trend picture of the industry remains essentially stable (-0.2%) for production, it shows a decline in domestic orders (-1.3%) while foreign orders remain positive (+0.4%). The employment balance and entrepreneurs’ expectations for the second quarter are positive – concludes Auricchio – especially in view of the possible, and long-awaited, reduction in rates by Europe”.
The businesses of artisan sector confirm a moderate growing trend with a limited increase in production (+0.7%), but turnover (-0.8%) and orders (-0.5%) decreasing after reaching historic highs at the beginning of last year, and still strong price tensions (+3.5% for both raw materials and finished products). The trend picture is similar, recording a 2% growth in production but a decline in turnover (-3.4%) and orders (-1.7%).
Lemployment for the Cremonese industrial sector maintains the growing trend with a change of +0.6% compared to the previous quarter and +1.2% on an annual basis. L’craftsmanship records a positive economic turnaround (+1.0%), while compared to the level of the same quarter of last year the gap is negative (-1.0%), confirming an underlying decreasing trend.
The use of Redundancy Fund in industry with 1.6% of the companies interviewed declaring they had used it. Higher percentage for crafts (6.8%) and an increase compared to the last quarter.
According to INPS data, the authorized CIG hours in the manufacturing sector in the first quarter of 2024 decreased (-39%), after the economic increase recorded at the end of 2023, stopping at 528 thousand hours, also down compared to the first quarter of 2023 ( -73%).
On the side of prices the industry shows a cooling of tensions both for raw materials (+0.2% cyclical) and for finished products (+0.4%). The picture in the craft sector is more critical, as it still records significant cyclical increases in prices: +3.5% for both raw materials and fake products.
The comparison of the industrial production index with Lombardy and Italy. After the positive exploit of the last quarter, the Cremonese industry is now in line with the regional result with a negative tone which also characterizes the overall national result (-1.0%). As regards the artisan sector, in the province of Cremona there is a modest economic growth (+0.7%), after the negative result of the last quarter, which keeps the trend almost stationary.
At all territorial levels there is a positive phase for employment, with an increase in employment and a reduction in the unemployment rate. This signal may indicate that companies consider the current decline in production to be only a passing phase and expect an improvement. Positive factors that can give oxygen to businesses are also the reduction in interest rates and the reduction in raw material prices.
After this start of the year of adjustment Cremona’s industrial entrepreneurs expect a positive rebound for the next quarter and all indicators of expectations improve with significantly positive balances. However, the share of entrepreneurs who expect stable levels remains high, ranging from 58% for internal production and demands up to 86% for employment.
The artisansin line with their less negative results, expectations for the next quarter improve with a significant prevalence of expectations for stable levels (60% for production and turnover and 83% for employment). The balances still show a prevalence of pessimists, but they are smaller than in previous quarters.
From a structural point of view, the picture of Cremonese companies confirms the adjustment for the industry. Overall the share of companies recording a drop in production therefore rises to 39%., to the detriment of companies that do not record significant changes (11%) and those with growing production (50%). For artisans, indications of stable levels increase more (23%) with a reduction in growing businesses (45% compared to 49% in the last quarter). The share of companies with a contraction in production levels remains stable.
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