A stagnant growth what is expected for the Lombardy economy in 2024, with several indicators subdued and declining. The growth prospects in fact confirm a substantial “slowdown” of the macro-economic situation, with the GDP which is expected to rise slightly to +1.2% in 2024. These are some of the data provided by Cna Lombardia in the Third Focus on the performance of the regional economy, created by the Sintesi Study Center. (in the photo Giovanni Bozzini president of Cna Lombardia)
CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENTS
Also the forecasts relating to consumption and investmentsHowever, they are not the best, so much so that consumption in 2024 they are expected to grow by only 0.8% (worst figure in the last four years). The new estimates therefore attest to the slow rise in consumption in Lombardy: in fact, the collapse of 2020 (-10.6%) was recovered in three years and the modest growth for the current year it should however be sufficient to largely exceed (+1.3%) the level of consumption recorded in 2019.
While as regards the investmentsthey are also in braking so much so that in 2024 they are expected to increase by only 2% (again, the worst figure in the last four years). Their recent trajectory has been influenced by a variety of elements, including levolution of interest rates, L’implementation of the PNRR and the regulation of building bonuses.
EXPORTS PENALIZED
«The data confirms expectations. We are in a situation of difficulty, of limited growth – comments the president of Cna Lombardia Giovanni Bozzini -. The regional economy is holding up, but is turning around much less than it could in a more stable macroeconomic context.”
Not even encouraging data from exports, one of the sectors most penalized in the last period also by the international situation. In 2023, in fact, in Lombardy it recorded one growth almost at a standstill with +0.8% for a total of 163 thousand million euros. The positive trend of agri-food (+7.1%), mechanics (+5.8%) e fashion system (+4.1%) counterbalances the decline in other sectors, particularly evident in metallurgy (-7%), in rubber-plastic chemistry (-4.8%) and in home system (-1.4%).
THE INDIVIDUAL PROVINCES
This is the situation at the provincial level: they stand out Monza Brianza (+7.4%), Sondrio (+7.2%) e Praises (+5.4%); they follow Varese (+3.7%), Bergamo (+3.4%) e Milan (+3.3%). In substantial stalemate Pavia (+0.6%) e Lecco (+0%). Bad instead Mantua (-10.8%), Brescia (-7%), Cremona (-6%) e How (-1.7%).
«We are still paying high rates and too many geopolitical unknowns: the wars on the outskirts of Europe and in the Near East are making themselves felt – continues the Secretary of Cna Lombardia, Stefano Binda -. Let us remember that, beyond specific conflict-driven sectors, a good economy needs good international relations and favorable stability on the investment horizon. If capital must be able to be patient to invest in sustainable growth, relations must be stable, people confident, rules certain.”
SUPERBONUS AND CHANGE OF THE RULES
«The negative data of the housing system makes us reflect both on industrial policies and on the great theme of the sense of mutual trust between businesses, citizens, politics and public administration – commentto Giovanni Bozzini –. We were the first to cultivate doubts about the sustainability of a measure with the aid intensities of Super bonusbut the signs of continuous alteration of the rules of the game which are also arriving in these hours from the Ministry of Economy do nothing but worsen an already very serious payment situation for many companies in the sector”.
STABLE INFLATION
Good news comes, however, from inflation which in the first three months of 2024, recorded +1% in the region, compared to +8.8% recorded in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the price dynamics is driven by accommodation and catering services (+3.6%), while the most significant decline concerns prices for housing, water, energy (-9.3%). «The data of the inflation is moving towards greater stability, but we realize that families are suffering from a situation of difficulty and mistrust – continues Bozzini -. Also for this reason we are involved in the renewal of regional collective labor agreements.”
ACTIVE BUSINESSES ARE GROWING BUT NOT ARTISAN ONES
On the business front, the 2024 has started positively, due to a slight increase in the number of active ones. As of March 31, 2024, growth of more than is observed 1600 companies compared to December 2023. We also observe a growth of almost 2,800 companies compared to the end of 2019 (+0.3%): this positive trend is solely attributable to construction and to the galaxy of gods services. From a provincial point of view, the best results (March 2023-March 2024) were obtained by Milan (+1.4%), Monza and Brianza (+0.6%), Lodi (+0.5%), Lecco ( +0.5%) and Como (+0.4%). Mantua (-1.4%), Brescia (-1%), Cremona (-0.8%), Sondrio (-0.6%), Pavia (-0.4%), lose ground. Varese (-0.4%) and Bergamo (-0.3%).
If total businesses are increasing between December 2023 and March 2024, for for artisan businesses the situation remains complicated, so much so that the drastic decline that began in 2021 continues. In this period, in fact, 650 companies have closed in the region. Compared to the end of 2019, the downsizing is 4.1%. In particular, we note the decline in artisan businesses in manufacturing (-5,842 companies); On the other hand, it holds craftsmanship in personal services. The provinces of Brescia (-3.1%), Mantua (-1.5%), Pavia (-0.4%), Sondrio (-0.4%) are most affected by the decline in the March 2023-March 2024 trend. %), Varese (-0.4%). Cremona (-0.2%), Bergamo (-0.2%), Milan (+0.1%) and Como (+0%) are almost unchanged, while Lodi (+0.8%), Monza Brianza (+0.0%) are growing. +0.6%) and Lecco (+0.4%).
«The data relating to the decline in artisan businesses is sobering – continues the president of Cna Lombardia Bozzini -. It is time, as requested by Cna Nazionale for months, to seriously review the legislative discipline of the sector, with a redefinition and updating of the reference framework and the criteria that codify what deserves the craftsmanship qualification. The added value of Made in Italy is at stake in a context in which every tool useful for protecting the specific difference of the country is crucial. Our quality must be exalted in global competition.”
EMPLOYMENT GOOD
However, the positive note relating to the fourth quarter of 2023 for the Lombardy economy is relative to employmentwhich records an increase in the number of over 76,000 employed (+1.7%) compared to 2022. Specifically, the increase in employment only concerns trade-hotels-catering (+4.7%) and other services ( +3.3%), while what weighs on the overall figure is above all the decline in employment in industry (-2%, equal to 23 thousand fewer employed).
Across the territories the situation is rather heterogeneous with the plus sign dominating: Cremona very good (+6%), Varese (+4.1%), Como (+2.8%) and Monza and Brianza (+2.7%). Followed by Lecco (+1.5%), Milan (+1.4%), Pavia (+1.4%), Brescia (+1.2%), Bergamo (+0.5%). Slight minus sign for Mantua (-0.4%), Lodi (-0.2%) and Sondrio (-0.2%). «Lombardy is tenaciously working. We ensure that it is quality work and marked by the central theme of the skills required by the job market – concludes Bozzini -. In our discussions with the candidates for the European elections we are asking to activate migratory corridors based on the principle of competence and also on-site training in the countries of origin, with which to build relationships based on the exchange of culture, knowledge, innovation and training”.
CREDIT TO COMPANIES
Instead, it ends with a theme that is very close to the hearts of businesses, both artisan and otherwise. That is, access to credit. In the whole of 2023, the total loans to companies in Lombardy decreased by 4.5%: the decline particularly concerns small-sized companies (-9.8%). With reference to interest rates, in February 2024 the average rate applied to new loans up to 1 million euros reached 5.81% (+1.42 points in one year); however, in relation to loans exceeding 1 million euros, the average rate stood at 5% (+1.96 points in twelve months). For the territories, everyone is suffering the most from the situation: Varese (-10.9%), followed by Sondrio (-10.4%), Brescia (-10.3%), Pavia (-8.5%), Bergamo ( -8.5%), Como (-8.4%), Lodi (-6.8%), Lecco (-5.9%), Cremona (-5.8%), Monza and Brianza (-3, 2%), Milan (-1.7%) and Mantua (-1.1%). «We have the feeling that for the banking and financial world the turnover and profit dynamics are increasingly detached from local businesses – he observes Stefano Binda -. It’s a risky slope, from which we all emerge poorer. If we want finance to fuel widespread and widespread economic and social development, we need credit institutions to share a “metric” oriented towards micro and small businesses also on the topic of environmental, social and governance sustainability. Otherwise it won’t be sustainability, but only further credit crunch».
