The US economy? It’s growing, but not for the average American: that’s why the Wall Street Journal talks about an “Ozempic boom”

NEW YORK – L’American economy is growing at enviable rates (4.3% in the third quarter), the stock market is at its highest (the Dow Jones index is looking at 50,000), the promises of the AI ​​revolution are just beginning. Is everything good for Trump and the United States of America? Not really: on the Christmas tables set in great America, from the East Coast, through the Deep South and the great plains of the Midwest to the West Coast, inequality continues to dominate between an increasingly wealthy privileged class and indeed a continuing Great America tighten the belt.

This is not only said by the economic data we have seen in recent days, the polls say it and, above all, it has told us Donald Trump in his speech to the Nation last week: he got angry with his ungrateful fellow citizens (his approval rating is among the lowest in the last 50 years): «Prices are falling, wages are rising, AI invests, wow if we make progress. Nobody can believe what is happening.” In fact, none.
Above all who can’t make it to the end of the month. His seemed like an imitation of Joe Biden, who was also incredulous at the Americans’ ingratitude in the face of a growing economy. The difference: Biden cited numbers with a positive tone, Trump cited numbers with a tone of sharp reproach for his fellow citizens. But for now the king remains naked, also because on this economic issue will be played in the midterm elections next November. Key elections for the White House, determined to maintain control of Parliament.

The underlying question therefore, looking ahead, is not so much about Tuesday’s excellent overall data for the third quarter, but about what awaits us in 2026. Above all, it is necessary to understand whether some structural components are now at the root of the feeling of economic malaise among low- to middle-income Americansthat is, the vast majority, may change in view of Christmas 2026. Judging by the data available today, the answer is no.

But let’s see what’s hidden behind the most recent data.

It is true that in the third quarter consumer demand held up well, it contributed 2.5% of that 4.3% growth, but a third of that 2.3% comes from an increase in healthcare costs and travel expenses. For travel in particular, as for the rest of many consumer items, the contribution comes above all from wealthier consumers and in the luxury sector. The middle class generally stayed at home. A figure so anomalous in its composition that of the third quarter that the Wall Street Journal he felt compelled to ask himself: “Are we in an Ozempic boom?”.

To this we must add that inflation continues to leave its mark and that other data on the debt front, for example, are growing. Let’s start with inflation. The “core” consumer price index (the most reliable as it excludes energy and food prices, which are more volatile) increased by 2.9% in the third quarter compared to an increase in disposable income of 2.8%, the difference is minimal, 0.1%, but still negative for the American worker.

To this it must be added that the Savings rate fell 4.2%. How come? Let’s see some macro rumors on debt. That of families increased by 197 billion dollars to 19 trillion dollars in the third quarter, mortgages increased by 137 billion dollars to 13 trillion dollars. Colossal figures. There are difficulties for subprime loans for car purchases (there was already a small financial crisis months ago), for credit card debt we are at +24 billion dollars at 1,230 billion dollars, for real estate mortgages at +137 billion dollars at 13,000 billion dollars. Debts to pay for studies have reached the ceiling of 1.65 trillion dollars with a stock of almost 43 million students in debtwe are talking about young people who are entering the world of work and who for years and years will have to repay a debt for having studied before saving or enjoying life. Is this a decreasing figure? No, in the third quarter, net borrowing to finance studies increased by 15 billion dollars. This painting, rising debta decreasing savings rate, has a structural connotation.

Let’s instead see the path of a brand new voice that supported growth in 2025, investments in AI. For the third quarter they even have contributed 14% of the overall growthbut they are slightly decreasing compared to the second quarter. And they certainly represent an essential burst of growth, positive on a structural level, but not necessarily reassuring on an economic level: how long can these rhythms last? How much debt are we talking about to finance them? On the debt front, concerns are beginning to emerge over ratios built on sky-high stock market values ​​that discount increases in revenue that have not yet occurred. And what will happen if the stock market, driven only by AI, decides to take a break in the unlimited trust granted to the sector? Of course, the investments will be distributed over time. And if we build today, we will create new jobs tomorrow, but will this be a sustainable pace in 2026?

Finally we come to the manufacturing sectorwhat Donald Trump had promised to relaunch thanks to his crazy tariff policy. It is true that the tariffs did not bring the recession that many economists feared, but only because Trump has generally fallen from the threatened 25%-50% to a more modest (and sustainable) 15%. The problem is that in the face of the political and economic repercussions that they brought with them, these increases have not favored the promised growth of the manufacturing sector which remains weak and which in this quarter (but it is again a structural data) accounted for 10% of the growth rate (almost 50% less than the contribution of AI).

This overall picture helps explain why in the Trump era the Americans remain economically dissatisfied in the face of growth for us enviable 4.3%. Which brings us to the economic confidence index, an overall benchmark that cannot be ignored and translates the data into positive or negative sentiment. For December the economic confidence index measured by Gallup remains in negative territory, at -14, but in November it was at -30 and in October at -23. To give an idea of ​​this measurement it is necessary to put it in context, it is calculated on an oscillation between +100 and -100. The historical maximum since 1992 was +56, in January 2000, the minimum is -72, recorded in October 2008 in the midst of the sub prime crisis. In the last five years the minimum was -58 in June 2022 coming out of Covid and the maximum was +41 in February 2020, right before Covid.
It is therefore in these balances that the structural challenge America is facing is summarized. And returning to the initial question that Trump also asks himself: is it possible that there will be a strong turnaround in Americans’ moods between now and next November? Everything is possible, but in light of what we know today it is unlikely. Which gives strength to the increasingly widespread hypothesis: Trump will lose his slim majority in the House in the next November midterm elections. And we have the litmus test in one last piece of data contained in the third quarter GDP: the wage growth of low-income families fell by 1%, while that of higher-income families rose by 3.7% compared to the same period of the previous year. At the turn of Christmas 2025, colder than normal, perhaps due to the strong wind blowing from the north, instead of narrowing, the delta between rich and poor continues to grow. The only consolation for Italy: the passion for panettone is increasing on the tables of rich and poor alike and there are panettone at all prices on the shelves. The gluttony for good things wins over tariffs for now.

December 25, 2025

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