The days are still very dark but during this Christmas it will be possible to turn on the domestic lights and heat the house without thinking too much about the consequences on future bills. In fact, according to the analysis of Facile.itstarting from the forecasts of wholesale electricity and gas prices developed by theEuropean Energy Exchangea drop in the final price for the user is estimated. A decrease that will reach peaks of 12% for heating and 2% for electricity.
But not everyone will benefit from the expected decreases. In fact, only users who have chosen a supply to indexed price they will see the final cost of electricity and gas drop. Those who have a fixed rate contract, because it is established by Arera or by any free market management body, will not see fluctuations in their bill.
What does indexed price tariff mean?
To understand what a indexed price we must first explain what Pun and Psv are.
Il Pun (single national price) concerns electricity and indicates the average value of wholesale electricity in Italy. It is linked to the stock market performance of the Energy Markets Manager. The Psv (virtual exchange point) plays the same role as the Pun but for gas, the final cost of which is also a reflection of the international dynamics underlying the energy supply needs of states like Italy, poor in raw materials. Just think of the increases in gas prices throughout Europe which occurred to break down the dependence on Russian gas.
The fluctuations in Pun and Psv, added to the supplier’s established fixed profit, determine the final balance.
Now let’s see in practice how much consumers who have chosen supply contracts at indexed prices will be able to save.
How much you save on electricity
The reduction estimated by Facile.it it will be approximately – 2% in 2026 compared to 2025, a decline that reflects a 4% decline in PUN. The values indicated correspond to those of a typical family. For example, a group of three people, living in an apartment of around 100 m2 with energy class E, which consumes around 2,700 kWh per year, goes from an expense of around 758 eurofor 2025 still to be concluded, to one of 743 for 2026. The reduction in electricity is not significant, but the numbers regarding gas users are of a completely different type.
How much you save on gas
The prices of water heating and radiators could have a reduction of 12%. This means that the transfer of a house inhabited by at least three individuals would go from the estimated 1,691 euros for this year to 1,493 for the next. In this expenditure item the savings for some families could be significant, reaching approximately 200 euros per year.
The estimates were always made taking into account:
- of the market forecasts, which see the wholesale price of gas falling by approximately -25% from an average value of 0.4119 to 0.3087 euro smc (standard cubic metre);
- the average energy class of the Italian property stock, which often does not protect the consumer from heat loss, which obviously is reflected in rather high bills during the cold months.
How can I know if I will have less expensive bills
To understand if your supply will suffer drops in the final balance because you have an indexed price, which therefore varies following the market indices, all you have to do is check your bill and look for phrases like:
- energy price indexed to Pun for electricity;
- energy price indexed to the PSV for gas;
- variable price linked to wholesale markets.
If you only find the fixed price written, unfortunately you will not be able to benefit from drops in wholesale gas and electricity prices. This type of value fluctuation it is not employee by the difference between the free market or the one with greater protection. Perhaps in some cases it could be advantageous to consider changing supplier to benefit from a possible drop in prices. But one thing is certain: don’t change provider over the phone, otherwise you risk paying higher bills.
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