Mortgages, the fixed one still wins, variable only from 2025: to see the Euribor at 3%, three more ECB cuts are needed

The reduction in the cost of money carried out by the ECB on 6 June had little effect on mortgage conditions. The 3-month Euribor, the parameter benchmark of variable loans, in fact it fell by only 4 cents while the Eurirs, the reference parameter for fixed loans, was affected by the increase in government bond rates and in the fifteen days following the Frankfurt decision the 20-year value initially increased to to come close to 2.9% and then fall between 2.65% and 2.7%. The scenario of three or four downward maneuvers in 2024 by the Eurotower is now by no means a given and at this point also the sharp decline in variable mortgages, which was expected a few months ago and which would give some oxygen to families who have this type of financing in progress, appears to be under discussion. From the comparison between the 3-month Euribor and the ECB rate, it emerges that when the ECB decides to change the cost of money, the Euribor aligns itself with a maximum difference of 50 cents of a point. Therefore, to see the parameter around 3% and variable mortgages around 4%, the ECB needs to reduce the cost of money by another 75 cents. According to Chatam Financial forecasts, we will have to wait another year to have the 3-month Euribor at 3%.