The summit number 42 in the history of relations between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. The Tsar will arrive in Beijing Thursday 16 May for two days of “discussions on strategic cooperation and an exchange of views on international issues”, say the Kremlin and the Chinese Foreign Ministry together. No details on the contents.
The new summit had been planned for some time and the Tsar prepared it by defining Xi as a great friend and “a true man”. On the other hand, the declarations of esteem and affection between the two could fill a book. The most notable is that of February 4, 2020, when twenty days before the Russian aggression on Ukraine, Xi and Putin proclaimed “cooperation without limits”.
However, national interests come before promises and personal friendship. And the Chinese are well aware of theirs: to avoid further financial and commercial sanctions threatened by Washington against Beijing’s banks and companies to stop the transfer of “dual use” technology and machinery (civil and military) that the Russians need to continue war production .
Putin at this stage has a short-term vision: win the challenge in Ukraine at all costs. It needs Chinese support, the “dual use” supplies needed for the most sophisticated weapons, because the millions of artillery shells purchased in North Korea are not enough to break through the front. American intelligence believes they are 90% of semiconductors imported from Russia will be “made in China” in 2023 and used to guide missiles, planes and tanks. And 70% of the industrial machinery used by the Russians to accelerate the reconstitution of their war arsenal comes from China.
The new Defense Minister chosen by Putin, Andrei Belousov, is an economist who has cultivated excellent contacts with the Chinese and his appointment is also a sign of this tactic which aims to strengthen collaboration in the military industry sector.
According to Kremlinologists, last week Putin decided to make his outburst on exercises with tactical nuclear weapons just as Xi was visiting Paris also to show how China’s professed neutrality is now untenable. In fact, our Chinese friend certainly did not condemn the Russian threat and only promised support for the Olympic Truce dreamed of by Emmanuel Macron.
Xi, as is typical of the Chinese mentality, has long-term goals, play in slow motion to take your time. While his industry works toward technological self-sufficiency, he cannot give the United States justification for further trade squeezes in the hi-tech sector. The tariffs announced by the White House on Chinese electric cars indicate America’s determination to play hardball. And if it is clear that China-Russia trade has risen as a result of Moscow’s Western isolation, reaching 240 billion dollars (increasingly regulated in renminbi to China’s advantage), Beijing knows how to calculate well: Chinese exports to the United States are worth 427 billion dollars and that to the European Union 550 billion. Until the completion of the new “technological revolution” planned by the communist Politburo, the Chinese cannot do without exporting goods to the West.
Data from recent months indicates that the Chinese have become more cautious in trade with the Russians: their exports fell by 15% in March and 13.5% in April, compared to the same period in 2023. A sign that the warnings of White House have had some effect.
Therefore, apart from expressions of friendship, Putin should not obtain much concrete from his friend Xi.
The Chinese president has already played his part in last week’s European mission, when he stopped in Belgrade and Budapest, promising industrial investments to the two governments that notoriously sympathize with the Russian cause.
However, the Tsar should not return empty-handed from Beijing: there is always talk of final signature on the Power of Siberia 2 project which should bring more Russian gas to China.
