The socialists win in Catalonia, with the candidate for governor Salvador Illa, leader of the PSC who, according to the Sigma exit polls and the first partial official data, is confirmed as the most voted force and which with 29% would reach 43 seats out of 135. But, as in 2021, he is far from the absolute majority to govern, although in a very different social context from that of three years ago, in which independence was not at the center of the electoral dispute due to the tiredness of the electorate, which left behind ambitions of unilateral ruptures, such as the secessionist referendum of 2017. And amid growing political tensions at a national level, where the test in Catalonia marks the stability of the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, dependent on the Catalanist parties for survival in Madrid.
The independence party Junts per Catalunya of former president Carles Puigdmont, with 19% and 32-36 seats, overtakes the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) of outgoing governor Pere Aragones (17%, 24-27 seats) which pays the price of uncertain management of the last two years. With the anti-capitalist Cup, the other pro-independence force, at 6% with 7-9 seats, they would come close to an absolute majority of 68 seats out of the 135 in the Catalan Parliament. A personal success for Carles Puigdemont, the former president who fled to Belgium six years ago and returned to stir up the independence epic in the campaign carried out in the French cross-border town of Argeles-sur Mar. “I hope it is the last day of the exile of many people who are outside, who have spent many years abroad and it’s already time for them to return home”, said the former MEP when casting his vote, who at the end of the campaign warned: “Madrid, get ready, we are coming back” . Strengthened by the amnesty law negotiated with Sanchez, in exchange for support for the investiture. The People’s Party tripled its seats in 2021 (which was its worst result in the region) reaching 14 ahead of the ultra-right Vox, which would get 12, down compared to three years ago.
On the left, the Comuns of the former mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, stops at 5-6 seats (compared to 8 in 2021). While on the far right, Aliança Catalana, the far-right anti-Islamist and secessionist force led by the mayor of Ripoll, Silvia Orriols, capitalized on the protest vote and received 3.9% and 3 seats on its debut. The liberal Ciudadanos remains outside the Catalan Chamber, losing 6 seats in 2021 and only in 2017 was the leading political force in the region. After years of instability, the socialists could therefore regain the presidency of the Generalitat, lost in 2010, if Salvador Illa manages to close negotiations with ERC and the Comunes. In this scenario, in Esquerra Republicana a profound internal debate will open on the hypothesis of definitively leaving the pro-independence allies for an alliance with the socialists, which would also support the PSOE-Sumar national executive. ERC, of the outgoing governor Aragones, would be the needle of the balance of what is announced as a puzzle for governability. “Today we open a new decisive stage in Catalonia”, repeated Illa after voting in La Roca del Valles, his hometown.
Urging citizens, in tandem with Pedro Sanchez in the electoral campaign, to vote for “a peaceful change” for “progress, coexistence and stability”, after “the lost decade” of independence-led leadership in the region. The policy of détente pursued since 2018, which included pardons for Catalan leaders convicted of sedition and amnesty for those involved in the independence process – which will be definitively approved at the congress at the end of the month – has only partially borne fruit . A possible Socialist-Junts alliance should be ruled out in principle, as Puigdemont has already done. The question is: what incentives can the two Catalanist parties have to guarantee central Spanish governability if one of the two (or both) remains outside the Catalan government due to the landing of the PSC in the Generalitat.
Reproduction reserved © Copyright ANSA
