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On the crest of the wave two years ago and now almost forgotten, certainly far from the spotlight which these days is all turned towards BTp Valore. That of BTp Italy it is an almost perfect parabolic trajectory: their “low to the ground” coupons dissatisfied almost all the confident subscribers among Italian families (for whom they had been explicitly designed by the Treasury), they reached unthinkable heights when the inflation to which they are indexed took flight and now I am descended back to the starting pointalmost.
We no longer talk about them and to attract savers the Treasury prefers to rely on the BTp Valore, already twice the subject of new issues for almost 30 billion euros in 2024. However, there are still seven BTp Italia in circulation, for over 70 billion (77 billion, according to data revalued at the end of 2023 by the Mef): a certainly not negligible amount which largely remains in the hands of families in our country. Examining the coupons expected in the near future and comparing their yields with those of nominal securities of the same maturity can therefore prove to be a very useful exercise.
The (skinny) coupons are coming
Starting from the periodic payments that this type of bond guarantees to subscribers every six months (unlike the quarterly frequency expected for BTp values), it can be noted that the next ones arriving will respectively be equal to approximately 0.39%, 0.80% and 0.91% gross for the three bonds that pay in May and 1.27% for the BTp Italia which “detaches” in June and whose values have also already been determined by the Treasury. Ideally adding the previous coupon received six months earlier leads to gross annual flows of between 1.55% and 2.80%, very far from light years from the 10% level which was almost reached between 2022 and the first months of 2023 when inflation was biting.
The decline in inflation
The cause of this roller coaster evidently lies in the trend of the Italian consumer price index, whose percentage change compared to the previous year jumped up to 12.6% in the autumn of 2022 and then falls again again below 1% last April. The rather complex mechanism (and difficult to understand, except for experts) with which the coupons are determined has done the rest and even for the other securities expected at the cash register in the autumn there is no promise of great news. Estimates made by IT Skipper For The sun 24 hours based on the latest official value of the FOI index on the basis of which the coupons are determined (1.19%) they indicate a gross value of 1.83% for the security that will pay in September and of 1.11% and 1.30% for the others expected in October.
And if the disappointment of those who had purchased it during the last issues, also driven by rather aggressive advertising campaigns, is understandable, this does not mean that BTp Italia can be considered a stock to be discarded, just as it was not the classic “chicken with golden eggs” a year and a half ago. Its returns must in fact be inserted into the current macroeconomic and market context and, if anything, to be measured with those of nominal BTp (with fixed coupons and not indexed to inflation) with similar maturities and in this case the comparison is not necessarily a loserOn the contrary.
