In the province of Pavia, employment rises (+1.4%), but access to credit for businesses continues to decline (-8.5%)

Lombardy economy, stagnant growth confirmed in 2024. April projections see GDP at +1.2%, consumption at +0.8% and investments at +2%. In the province of Pavia, the decline in access to credit for businesses continues (-8.5%), while employment rises (+1.4%).

Lombard economy

A stagnant growth what is expected for theLombard economy in 2024, with several indicators subdued and declining. The growth prospects indeed confirm a substantial “slowdown” of the macro-economic situationwith the GDP which in 2024 should settle slightly upwards to +1.2%. These are some of the data provided by CNA Lombardy in the Third Focus on the performance of the regional economy, created by the Sintesi Study Center.

Also the forecasts relating to consumption and to investments However, they are not the best, so much so that in 2024 consumption should only grow by 0.8% (worst figure in the last four years). The new estimates therefore attest to the lsignificant rise in consumption in Lombardy: in fact, the collapse of 2020 (-10.6%) was recovered in three years and the modest growth for the current year should still be sufficient to largely exceed (+1.3%) the level of consumption recorded in 2019.

While as regards the investments, they too are in braking so much so that in 2024 they should only increase by 2% (again the worst figure in the last four years). Their recent trajectory has been influenced by a variety of elements, including the evolution of interest rates, the implementation of the PNRR and the regulation of construction bonuses.

“The data confirms expectations. We are in a situation of difficulty, of limited growth – comments the President of CNA Lombardia Giovanni Bozzini -. The regional economy is holding up, but is turning around much less than it could in a more stable macroeconomic context.”

Export

Not even encouraging data from exports, one of the sectors most penalized in the last period also by the international situation. In 2023, in fact, in Lombardy it recorded a cgrowth almost stable with a +0.8% for a total of 163 thousand million euros. the positive trend of agri-food (+7.1%), mechanics (+5.8%) and fashion system (+4.1%) counterbalances the decline in other sectors, particularly evident in metallurgy (-7%), in chemistry rubber-plastic (-4.8%) and in the home system (-1.4%).

This is the situation at provincial level: Monza Brianza (+7.4%), Sondrio (+7.2%) and Lodi (+5.4%) stand out; followed by Varese (+3.7%), Bergamo (+3.4%) and Milan (+3.3%). In substantial stalemate Pavia (+0.6%) and Lecco (+0%). However, Mantua (-10.8%), Brescia (-7%), Cremona (-6%) and Como (-1.7%) did poorly.

“We pay still high rates and too many geopolitical unknowns: the wars at the gates of Europe and in the Near East are making themselves felt – continues the Secretary of CNA Lombardia, Stefano Binda -. Let us remember that, beyond specific sectors driven by conflicts, a good economy needs good international relations and stability conducive to the investment horizon. If capital must be able to be patient to invest in sustainable growth, relations must be stable, people confident, rules certain.”

“The negative data of the housing system makes us reflect both on industrial policies and on the great theme of the sense of mutual trust between businesses, citizens, politics and public administration – comments Giovanni Bozzini -. We were the first to cultivate doubts about the sustainability of a measure with the aid intensities of Super bonus, but the signs of continuous alteration of the rules of the game which are also arriving in these hours from the Ministry of Economy do nothing but worsen an already very serious payment situation for many companies in the sector.”

Inflation

Good news comes, however, from inflation which in the first three months of 2024, recorded a +1%compared to +8.8% recorded in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the price dynamics are driven by accommodation and catering services (+3.6%), while the most significant decline concerns prices for housing, water, energy (-9.3%).

“The inflation figure is approaching one greater stability, but we realize that families are suffering from a situation of difficulty and mistrust – continues Bozzini -. Also for this reason we are involved in the renewal of regional collective labor agreements”.

Active businesses

On the business front, 2024 started positively, due to a slight increase in the number of active onesAnd. As of March 31, 2024, a growth of over 1600 companies was observed compared to December 2023. A growth of almost 2,800 companies was also observed compared to the end of 2019 (+0.3%): this positive trend is attributable solely to construction and the galaxy of services.

From a provincial point of view, the best results (March 2023-March 2024) were obtained by Milan (+1.4%), Monza and Brianza (+0.6%), Lodi (+0.5%), Lecco ( +0.5%) and Como (+0.4%). Mantua (-1.4%), Brescia (-1%), Cremona (-0.8%), Sondrio (-0.6%), lose ground. Pavia (-0.4%), Varese (-0.4%) and Bergamo (-0.3%).

The occupation

However, the positive note relating to the fourth quarter of 2023 for the Lombardy economy is relative to employment, which records a increase in the number of over 76,000 employed (+1.7%) compared to 2022. Specifically, the increase in employment only concerns trade-hotels-catering (+4.7%) and other services (+3.3%), while the overall figure is mainly affected by the decline in employment in industry (- 2%, equal to 23 thousand fewer employed).

In the territories the situation is rather heterogeneous with the plus sign dominating: very good Cremona (+6%), Varese (+4.1%), Como (+2.8%) and Monza and Brianza (+2.7% ). Followed by Lecco (+1.5%), Milan (+1.4%), Pavia (+1.4%), Brescia (+1.2%), Bergamo (+0.5%). Slight minus sign for Mantua (-0.4%), Lodi (-0.2%) and Sondrio (-0.2%).

“Lombardy is tenaciously working. Let’s ensure that it is quality work and marked by the central theme of the skills required by the labor market – concludes Bozzini -. In our discussions with the candidates for the European elections we are asking to activate migratory corridors based on the principle of competence and also on-site training in the countries of origin, with which to build relationships based on the exchange of culture, knowledge, innovation and training”.

Access to credit

Instead, it ends with a theme that is very close to the hearts of businesses, both artisan and otherwise. That is to say access to credit. In the whole of 2023 the total loans to companies in Lombardy is decreased by 4.5%: the decline particularly concerns small-sized companies (-9.8%). With reference to interest rates, in February 2024 the average rate applied to new loans up to 1 million euros reached 5.81% (+1.42 points in one year); however, in relation to loans exceeding 1 million euros, the average rate stood at 5% (+1.96 points in twelve months).

For the territories, everyone suffers the situation the most: Varese (-10.9%), followed by Sondrio (-10.4%), Brescia (-10.3%), Pavia (-8.5%), Bergamo (-8.5%), Como (-8.4%), Lodi (-6.8%), Lecco (-5.9%), Cremona (-5.8%), Monza and Brianza (- 3.2%), Milan (-1.7%) and Mantua (-1.1%).

“We have the feeling that for the banking and financial world the turnover and profit dynamics are increasingly detached from local businesses – he observes Stefano Binda -. It’s a risky slope, from which we all emerge poorer. If we want finance to fuel widespread and widespread economic and social development, we need credit institutions to share a “metric” oriented towards micro and small businesses also on the topic of environmental, social and governance sustainability. Otherwise it won’t be sustainability, but only a further credit crunch.”