There is tension following the results of the nationalists of the Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO), which raises concern about the impact on Skopje’s relations with Brussels, Sofia and Athens. According to analyst George Tzogopoulos, “nationalism in the Balkans is nothing new. A likely scenario for the future will be tense political relations but not major changes that could put stability at risk.”
05/09/2024
Could the victory of the nationalists in the North Macedonian elections call into question the Prespa agreements? AND tension after the results of the nationalists of the Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO), which raises concerns about the impact on Skopje’s relations with Brussels, Sofia and Athens. The nationalists won 42% of the vote against 14% for the ruling centre-left Social Democrats (SDSM), pushing their leader Dimitar Kovacevski to admit defeat, while the first female head of state was elected, Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova. The leader of the nationalists Hristijan Mickovski refused to recognize the country’s new name and the historic 2018 agreement with Greece, which added “North” to its title to resolve a long-standing dispute and allowed the country to join NATO. Today this picture could be called into question.
Skopje here
On shields Gordana Siljanovska-Davkovauniversity professor who defeated the incumbent president, supported by the SDSM, Stevo Pendarovski. Siljanovska-Davkova received 65% of the vote against Pendarovski’s 29%. These numbers can be explained by voters’ frustration with corruption and North Macedonia’s stalled efforts to join the European Union. Siljanovska-Davkova asked whether there is a bigger change than electing a woman as president: “I will stand alongside women in taking this big step forward, a step towards reform.”
Mickoski also promised not to take any steps backwards with Bulgaria due to a series of disagreements over linguistic and historical issues which has seen Sofia block North Macedonia’s accession talks to the EU in the last two years. Specifically, Bulgaria has asked Skopje to amend its constitution to recognize its Bulgarian minority. Two years ago Sofia opened up to this request by pledging to lift the veto on the start of Skopje’s accession negotiations only when North Macedonia added the Bulgarian minority to the country’s constitution.
Tzogopoulos’ comment
Could the victory of the nationalists in the North Macedonian elections call into question the Prespa agreements? According to the analyst George Tzogopoulos, lecturer at the European Institute of Nice Cife, fellow at the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Israel and at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy in Greece, it is natural that during pre-electoral periods politicians use slogans capable of attracting public attention. “Nationalism in the Balkans, in particular, is nothing new. The situation in 2024 (between Greece and North Macedonia) does not resemble that of 2019. The name dispute has been practically resolved for five years. The Prespa Agreement was crucial for North Macedonia’s accession to NATO. This cannot be reversed.”
The Prespa agreement, adds the analyst, is an international treaty and cannot be modified unilaterally. “What we can expect, therefore, is not the inconceivable cancellation of the agreement, but a delay in the implementation of some parts of the agreement. The current Greek government, for example, is concerned about North Macedonia’s failure to comply with some parts of the agreement and has delayed the ratification of three important memoranda of understanding in parliament. I believe that similar trends will strengthen after the recent elections. It is in North Macedonia’s interest to work closely with the EU. And the Prespa Agreement sets the way forward for relations between North Macedonia and Greece. Therefore, the new government will have difficulty investing in nationalism and keeping the country’s European dream alive. Politically speaking, the new government can blame the previous one for the Prespa agreement, criticize some parts of it and partially delay its implementation. But it will certainly be aware of its international obligations.”
And he concludes: “A probable scenario for the future will be that of tense political relations – especially in the construction of narratives – but not of major changes that could put stability at risk.”
The case of the name and illegal practices
The Australian Institute of Macedonian Studies (AIMS) has written to the Australian Government calling for action against the Macedonian Communities Council of Australia website and logo as they breach the Prespa Agreement. Under the agreement, FYROM was recognized internationally with the name “Republic of North Macedonia”. This agreement now constitutes an International Treaty ratified by the United Nations, NATO and the European Union. The designation “North Macedonia” therefore constitutes the official nomenclature in their country’s Constitution, also making it clear that North Macedonia has no historical, territorial or cultural connection with Greek Macedonia, Hellas and its history and culture.
