a poker of victories for the Europa League

The bar is lowered. Unfortunately. But there is still a chance for Napoli to secure a place in Europe, albeit through the back door. Europa League or Conference, so to speak. Considering the fifth (and last) place for the Champions League now a chimera – currently occupied by Roma at 59 – for the Italian champions all that remains is to settle for the minor competitions.

But it won’t be easy at all. Suffice it to say that at the moment the Azzurri are out of all the cups. For reasons of detail, but in any case the data remains. And it’s worrying. This is why Ciccio Calzona’s troops will have to put their foot down on the accelerator in this final rush to prevent the data from becoming merciless. With four games to play, 12 points up for grabs and the current 50 total in the standings, Napoli will have to try to take full advantage. Always. Net of further slots that could come from the success of one of them Atalanta and Rome (harder) as well as Florentine in Europe (the Dea is in the final of the Italian cup and other scenarios could open up), at the moment there are two places available for the next Europa League (the sixth and the seventh) and one for the Conference (the eighth). Numbers in hand, Fiorentina occupies the last useful position for the Conference although they have the same points as the Azzurri (but they are ahead after the blitz on Maradona in the first leg).

The table for Europe

If you want to take a look at the past, it is clear that the odds for sixth and seventh place (therefore the EL) are between 65 and 62 points on average in the last seven Serie A championships. There’s more . Except for the 2020-’21 season alone in which something like 68 points were needed Lazio to grab sixth place (which actually raises the average), the trend settles at around 63 points. In any case, a threshold that would be arithmetically impossible for Napoli to reach. Here the pass to the Europa League can only be given to the Azzurri by the seventh and last – at the moment – place in the championship. Also in this case the statistics impose a sprint on Napoli that rhymes with en plein. Again taking into account the last seven seasons, in fact, the teams that finished the championship in seventh place did so by averaging 62 points. The data takes into consideration the “peak” of Turin with 63 points (2018-’19 season) and the lowest share (60 points) of theAtalanta championship 2017-’18). In short, the numbers speak clearly and never betray. Of course, there are still many direct clashes that could bring the average down slightly, but if Napoli wants to reach the Europa League they will have to travel in high gear and possibly reduce the number of successes (something which they have never even managed to achieve). with a trio this year). Otherwise… Otherwise there would be the Conference (currently scheduled for eighth place), just to avoid the shame of exclusion from the cups for the first time after 14 years in a row. But this would really be too much.

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