Ten days away from Standard & Poor’s the agency too Dbrs Morningstar promotes Italy’s accounts, and therefore Giancarlo Giorgetti’s Def, and points the finger at the Superbonus accounting disaster wanted by Giusppe Conte’s first government.
The report card also in the case of Dbrs, which is the smallest of the four rating lords on which the entire international financial community hangs, is BBB (high) with a stable trend.
But just as S&P had already done (“BBB” rating and “stable” forecasts), DBRS also warns that the incentive wanted by the head of the Five stars had a “bigger-than-expected impact” in terms of tax credits. To the point of digging a chasm and resulting in a deficit equal to 7.4% of GDP. A disaster, considering that the government’s estimates stood at an already heavy 5.4 percent.
Luckily the Peninsula has achieved a more marked “post-pandemic recovery” than expected, surpassing other states including Germany, which as a former locomotive of the Old Continent found itself in recession, victim of its own blind rigor even within the ECB by Christine Lagarde.
So much so that, adds the rating agency, the ratio between public debt and GDP has fallen more rapidly than expected thanks to nominal growth. Thanks also to the flywheel of Recovery and Resilience Plan with its great works which should contribute to “mitigating the weakness of residential investments” in the coming years following the stop of the Superbonus.
The Treasury Minister’s choice to put part of the public debt safely in the medium-term in the pockets of small Italian savers with initiatives such as the BTP Valore, the fourth of which will start on 6 May, also helps to mitigate the risk of a speculative attack. issue, here are all the details of how much it yields.
In short, according to Dbrs the risk for Italy remains balanced. Provided, we add, that we decide to increase the competitiveness of the country and its businesses. How to do it is easy to say:
For further information, read also: Harakiri green, university students no longer want to do research with the money of big energy companies.
The next appointments with the rating agencies are imminent: Fitch on May 3rd and the much feared Moody’s on the last day of the same month. If the country emerges from this, as is likely, unscathed, let’s try to prepare our muscles for the future tests, which will be less benevolent also given the EU Stability Pact and the probable infringement procedure.
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