Natural gas
The changes in prices on Friday 31 May on the market are illustrated below natural gascompared to the previous Friday:
- TTF Netherlands 34.2 €/MWh (+0.1 €/MWh)
- HenryHub USA 8.1 €/MWh (+0.2 €/MWh)
- JKM Asia 37.4 €/MWh (-0.2 €/MWh)
Graph 1: TTF natural gas price trend and comparison between financial markets
The past week saw front-month TTF prices close at 34.2 €/MWh, stable compared to the closing of the previous week. However, volatility remains high as supply in recent weeks is highly variable: LNG arrivals are at the lowest levels in recent years and the continuous maintenance on Norwegian plants is fueling short-term fears, considering that Europe is in the midst of storage filling season, now at 69% of maximum capacity.
Also on the supply side, uncertainty remains regarding the supply of Russian gas to Austria while various unscheduled maintenance operations in Norway have pushed TTF prices towards €37/MWh today.
Petrolium
Last week, Brent prices for delivery in July 2024 fell by -0.3% to 81.6 $/bbl, while the August 2024 contract closed at 81.1 $/bbl, down -0.8%. WTI fell 1.2% to $77/bbl.
Graph 2: Oil price trend
OPEC+’s extension of production cuts to the end of 2025 by 3.66 million barrels per day does not appear sufficient to support price growth, due to rising non-OPEC+ production and ample fuel inventories.
Concerns about demand growth persist: according to EIA data, in fact, fuel stocks have increased while consumption has decreased. Added to this are the expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy rates unchanged at least until September.
Additionally, US diesel demand also fell to its lowest seasonal level since March 1998, while crude oil production surged.
Thermal Carbon
Last week, API2 front-month contract quotes had a stable trend, closing at $105.6/mt.
Graph 3: Price trend of thermal coal in Europe
Gas prices in Europe rose 20.3% in May, creating possible bullish sentiment in the coal market, even if fundamentals remain weak. Coal-fired power generation in Germany has fallen significantly, indicating weak demand.
Coal imports into the EU+UK fell by 47% compared to the previous year, while high inventories keep prices in check.
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