A few days ago, Reuters had reported sources according to which the giant TSMC allegedly told ASML, a major supplier of foundry machinery and equipment, to delay orders; we don’t know the reason for the decision, but according to other sources it seems that behind this choice there is a desire on the part of TSMC to diversify their plants using Taiwanese machinery.
The choice not to rely on a single supplier appears sensible, however the problem is another: the decision would translate into a decline in wafer production by TSMC. In particular, 3nm production, which should reach 100,000 wafers per month by the end of the year, would drop by 20/30% in the fiscal year 2024-2025, increasing to 70/80,000 wafers per month.
The news involving TSMC and ASML has already had negative effects: the share price has fallen and Goldman Sachs has cut TSMC’s revenues estimated for 2024 by 10%. The Taiwanese giant will remain stable in 2023 with a turnover of around 31.6 billion dollars, however Goldman Sachs has revised its estimates for next year from 28 billion to 25 billion dollars, 21% less than in 2023.
Despite the decline, TSMC however, remains in a dominant position, however the diversification of plants and the resulting decline in chip production could cause shortages and price increases of some latest generation components and devices. The 3nm node is extremely popular, not only for the iPhone 15, and reducing production capacity by 20/30% could prove to be a problem: if there were not enough chips we would find ourselves in a situation where the devices cannot be found, or they cost much more than they should. In both cases, consumers would lose out.
