“Let’s get ready in the medium term for a protracted “non-peace”. To a conflict that perhaps from 2024 will not be of such high intensity but that will drag on for years. Because as long as there is Putin there will be no real peace. I categorically exclude it”. Speak clearly Nathalie Toccisince 2017 director of the International Affairs Institute.
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Prigozhin: “We risk losing Russia. People tired of seeing their children go back to coffins”
So are the Ukrainian services right in setting themselves the goal of physically eliminating Putin, only to then correct the shot and speak of “capture to hand him over to the court in The Hague”?
“From the Ukrainian point of view, yes, it’s understandable. There is no doubt that if Putin were to die, the war would end. This is his war. After all, Prigozhin himself said that “the choice of the Ukrainian 007 to eliminate me and the president Putin is understandable.”
What are the Russian and Ukrainian goals today?
“The Russian offensive has already taken place and the objective of recovering all of Donbass has failed. The Russians, today, having taken over the city of Bakhmut after a very tiring and costly battle in human and material terms, have no resources to go further , will try to keep the territory they have, in which they have entrenched themselves. The Ukrainians, on the other hand, having obtained the heavy weapons they asked for, will try between now and the end of the year, probably in several waves, to conquer as much territory as possible. But even they do not know how much or when. The West has great expectations, but certainly it is difficult to imagine that the Russians will give in abruptly as in Kupiansk or withdraw as in Kherson. Probably the success will be partial, we will see by how much”.
Do you think the Russians hope that Trump will win and that with him military support to Kiev will end or be reduced?
“Yes, that’s the strategy. Putin’s premise is the belief that the West is weak and will eventually give up while Russia is resilient. The opportunity for easing military aid to Kiev is in Putin’s eyes the victory of Trump. Which remains to be seen and in any case it won’t be before January 2025”.
How to evaluate the so-called “Russian resistance”, promoted and supported by the Ukrainian services?
“It serves to force the Russians to allocate some troops on the border and above all it is a question of propaganda, to project an image of Russia’s weakness. Militarily it is a marginal phenomenon”.
Prigozhin asked Putin for more commitment because “if the war continues stutteringly, there is a risk of a new revolution in Russia”. What game does he play?
“He’s working against Shoigu and the military establishment. It’s clear he couldn’t say what he’s saying if there wasn’t some kind of go-ahead from Putin, who probably uses him in a sort of divide and conquer. It’s a controlled confrontation, but how clashes are always controlled until they lose control. Putin, however, appears solid and if Prigozhin were to challenge him in the presidential elections, he would be a dead man. But Prigozhin knows it well”.
Tomorrow (today for the reader) the Chinese envoy will be in Moscow. Is there any glimmer of the prospect of a peace in Chinese sauce?
“Truthfully, unfortunately not. The Chinese are playing a public relations game, aiming at the southern hemisphere. They want to show themselves as a power of peace, not to broker a peace. Pragmatically, they know that there is no chance today for a negotiation that is not read by the belligerents like a surrender of Kiev or the Kremlin. No one is ready for concessions. And therefore, there are no spaces”.
