Elon Musk, who knows about technology, a little less about politics, says that if he is indicted, Trump will win by a landslide the presidential elections of 2024. It is not like that, in fact perhaps he will lose them, but there is no doubt that an unprecedented event in American history like this (a former president held to account for criminal offenses) would become the central element of his election campaign. To be used, even before against Biden, against the other candidates of the conservative front who would like to contest him for the Republican nomination. It is his own lawyers who explain it clearly: an indictment decided by the prosecutor Alvin Bragg, African American and Democrat, will be presented as a political gift given to Biden.
Pressure on DeSantis
Faced with such a scenario, which political exponent of the right will be able to refrain from giving his solidarity to the former president without risking being besieged by protesters? Already now the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, the only one who, according to polls, can challenge Trump for the leadership of the Republicans, is under enormous pressure: from the personal attacks of the former president himself, to the insinuations made by his political allies, to the attempts of referral before the Florida ethics court and the offensive launched via the web by tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands of bots: accusations and criticisms avalanche against DeSantis who come from accounts that have a name and a face, but are actually fake: generated by a machine.
Wait your turn
The goal is clear: to convince Ron, who is only 44 years old, to wait his turn. Better not challenge Trump’s ire: one who does not know how to rule, but knows very well how to destroy. With DeSantis, even the entire historical wing of the Republican party who would like to close the season of Trump’s bizarre and isolationist sovereignty risks having to bow their heads once again. There will be disagreements: isolated cases, as has been the case in recent years, marked by the progressive exit from the scene of the more balanced conservatives, often replaced by Trumpians with an authoritarian mentality. Difficult a large revolt.
Scared voters
This also seems to be the scenario most welcomed by Democrats, convinced that an increasingly radicalized Trump, if he galvanizes the army of his fans, scares moderate right-wing voters into choosing Biden (or whoever) as the lesser evil. Even more if, by responding to Trump’s calls for a revolt, we will see again in the US unrest and scenarios similar to those of the assault on Congress two years ago. May this be the logic of the left seems also confirmed by the fact that in the Republican primaries that preceded the midterm vote last November, the Democrats secretly cheered (and sometimes voted) for the more extreme Trumpian candidates, considered easier to beat, then, in the vote for the renewal of the Congress. As has actually happened, in the majority of cases.
Risks for Democrats
However, a very risky scenario for Democrats, with Trump denouncing a political-judicial conspiracy against him presented as an attack on the political freedoms of all Americans. Thus he will be able to lead the campaign he prefers: pure boxing, zero programs. Dangerous scenario also for all the United States (and their allies): the leading country that risks appearing rudderless (or with a weak helmsman) in a crucial historical phase such as the one we are experiencing.
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